Toncoin (TON) has faced a sharp correction in recent weeks, slipping below the $3 mark amid concerns over upcoming token unlocks.
While selling pressure dominates short-term sentiment, a growing number of institutional moves suggest the current decline could present a chance to begin a dollar-cost averaging (DCA) strategy.
TON Token Unlocks Fuel Selling Pressure
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As of this writing, TON was trading for $2.66, after dropping by 1.3% in the last 24 hours and over 5% in the last week.
The immediate headwind for the Toncoin price comes from the Believers Fund, which will begin releasing approximately 37 million TON each month starting in November 2025.
Although initial fears pointed to a one-time release of 635 million tokens, clarification from TON ecosystem figures has eased the worst-case scenario.
Still, regular monthly unlocks will introduce significant new supply. Analysts see the overhang as a “time bomb” for short-term pricing. This raises concerns of the TON price dipping toward $2.61 before stabilizing.
Social commerce activity, NFT sticker demand within Telegram, and other network use cases are seen as potential offsetting forces.
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Institutional Confidence Anchors the Market
Despite looming unlocks, institutional players are signaling conviction in TON’s long-term value. TON Strategy Company (Nasdaq: TONX), a listed digital asset treasury (DAT) firm, has staked 82% of its Toncoin reserves.
The firm expects staking revenues, estimated at $24 million annually under current conditions, to fund an ongoing $250 million share buyback program.
“This accretive approach, staking income in, buybacks out, reinforces our long-term focus on shareholder value,” said CEO Veronika Kapustina.
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Reportedly, TONX has repurchased over 1.5 million shares since mid-September, signaling confidence in both the underlying asset and its own valuation.
In parallel, AlphaTON Capital has emerged as another heavyweight institutional holder. The firm recently completed $71 million in financings and immediately deployed $30 million into TON. AlphaTON also plans to scale its treasury to $100 million by year-end.
Backed by industry figures from Animoca Brands, the Kraken exchange, SkyBridge, and DWF Labs, AlphaTON sees TON’s integration into Telegram’s billion-user ecosystem as a once-in-a-generation opportunity.
Risk and Opportunity Balance
The tug-of-war between consistent unlock-driven selling pressure and growing institutional accumulation defines TON’s near-term outlook.
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On the one hand, retail traders may fear dilution. Still, professional investors are betting on TON’s unique positioning as the only major crypto asset directly embedded into a mainstream social application.
Adding to the potential opportunity, TON’s Sharpe Ratio has recently entered a low-risk zone.
This technical signal suggests that, relative to volatility, TON may now offer more favorable return prospects for disciplined accumulators.
With TON facing dual forces, supply expansion on one side and deep-pocketed accumulation on the other, predicting short-term price action remains fraught. Traders and investors should conduct their own research.
However, sub-$3 levels could mark a strategic entry point for investors with a longer horizon. A DCA strategy would reduce timing risk by spreading purchases across multiple intervals, ensuring exposure if institutional conviction overpowers near-term fear.
Source: https://beincrypto.com/toncoin-below-3-trap-or-dca-opportunity/