TON Technical Analysis Jan 24

Today’s short-term outlook for TON shows consolidation with weak momentum; it’s stuck in the 1.51-1.56 range, critical breakouts should be monitored.

Short-Term Market Outlook

TON is trading at 1.53 USD as of January 24, 2026, 14:20 UTC. It closed the day down 0.39% in the last 24 hours, with today’s trading range staying between 1.51-1.56 USD. Volume is at a moderate 37.57 million USD, but the trend is under downward pressure. Short-term indicators show RSI at 41.07 in neutral-bearish territory, MACD shows a positive histogram but overall momentum is weak. Supertrend is giving a bearish signal and price continues to stay below EMA20 (1.55 USD). This creates a high-risk environment for intraday traders in the next 24-48 hours; quick invalidation points are critically important. 11 strong levels detected in multiple timeframes (MTF): 2 supports/3 resistances on 1D, 1 support on 3D, 3 supports/2 resistances on 1W. News flow is calm, so technical levels take center stage.

Intraday Critical Levels

Nearby Support Zones

The nearest support is at 1.5157 USD (score: 61/100), just above today’s lows and should be watched for a quick test. Immediately above it is 1.5318 USD (score: 60/100); a break below this level could accelerate downward momentum. These supports offer quick invalidation points for intraday scalps – a close below 1.5157 triggers the bearish scenario.

Nearby Resistance Zones

The first resistance is at 1.5488 USD (score: 85/100), a strong barrier near EMA20 (1.55) and today’s high. The upper resistance is the Supertrend level at 1.61 USD. Upside movement remains limited unless these levels break; traders should target these zones for quick rejection tests.

Momentum and Velocity Analysis

Short-term momentum is mixed: MACD histogram is positive but the overall trend is downward and RSI at 41 is not approaching oversold. Supertrend is bearish, price below EMA20 – this combination signals consolidation or mild downside tendency for the next 24-48 hours. Velocity analysis is limited due to low volume; a sudden volume spike could shift momentum. For intraday quick momentum detection: above 1.5488 is bullish velocity, below 1.5157 is bearish velocity. Risk management is essential; stop-losses should be tight beyond 0.5-1% of levels, position sizing limited to 1-2% risk.

Short-Term Scenarios

Upside Scenario

A close above 1.5488 USD testing and breaking EMA20 (1.55) targets 1.6383 USD short-term (score:49). Trigger: Volume increase and MACD line crossing above zero. This scenario holds if BTC stays sideways; invalidation is a close below 1.5318. Potential swing: 4-5% upside, but high-risk – quick profit-taking recommended.

Downside Scenario

A break below 1.5157 USD tests today’s lows (1.51), with bearish momentum accelerating. Trigger: RSI below 40 and volume spike. No short-term target, but slide toward MTF supports possible. Invalidation: Rejection above 1.5488. This scenario strengthens if BTC approaches supports; quick short opportunities for scalp traders, stop above 1.55.

Bitcoin Correlation

BTC is sideways around 89,450 USD, 24h change 0.00%. BTC Supertrend is bearish, creating a cautious environment for altcoins. TON has high correlation with BTC; if BTC slips to 88,888 or 87,635 supports, TON accelerates below 1.5157. Conversely, a BTC break above 89,691 supports the TON upside scenario. Key BTC levels: Supports 88,888-86,420; Resistances 89,691-92,104. TON traders should monitor BTC dominance (bearish signal) – details in TON Spot Analysis and TON Futures Analysis.

Daily Summary and Monitoring Points

Today’s TON focus: Breaks of 1.5157 support and 1.5488 resistance. Momentum is weak, downtrend dominant – upside requires BTC support. Monitoring points: Hold at 1.5318 (short-term base), EMA20 test at 1.55, volume spikes. Short-term trades are high-risk; don’t neglect capital management, keep invalidations tight. 24-48 hour outlook: consolidation with bearish bias.