Tom Lee’s 2026 Script: Brutal Drop, Then Breakout

Tom Lee predicts a painful 2026 market decline before a year-end rally. Bitcoin targets $250K. Ethereum could hit $12K. Three forces driving turbulence ahead.

Wall Street veteran Tom Lee delivered a stark warning about 2026. Markets face substantial turbulence before a strong year-end rally. The Fundstrat co-founder outlined three critical transitions that could trigger bear market-level corrections.

According to Fundstrat on X, 2026 shapes up similarly to 2025. Good fundamentals remain intact. Tariff escalations continue. The White House picks “winners and losers.” Political divisiveness persists. AI and blockchain provide tailwinds.

2026 is shaping up to be similar to 2025:

– good fundamentals 😀
– tariff escalations and White House picking “winners and losers”
– political divisiveness
– tailwinds from AI and blockchain
BUT: dovish Fed now and QT over

And so a painful decline may lie ahead but we would… https://t.co/7Mp3rcOcP1

— Thomas (Tom) Lee (not drummer) FSInsight.com (@fundstrat) January 20, 2026

Source: Fundstrat 

But key differences exist now. A dovish Fed arrived. Quantitative tightening ended. These factors set the stage for a painful decline. Fundstrat tweeted that investors should “buy the dip” during pullbacks.

Lee emphasized his long-term conviction during the Master Investor podcast with Wilfred Frost. He stated that 2026 will look like a continuation of the bull market that started in 2022. Economic resilience becomes much more visible by year-end.

Three Storms Brewing for Markets

Lee identified specific catalysts for upcoming volatility. New Fed leadership creates uncertainty. Markets historically test incoming Federal Reserve chairs. This transition process triggers significant turbulence.

Aggressive White House intervention in picking market winners and losers intensifies. The technology consulting and healthcare sectors experienced disruption in 2025. More industries face similar pressure this year. Gold’s strong performance reflects widespread uncertainty.

AI valuation questions add to market stress. Investors question stretched valuations in artificial intelligence. Lee argues that exponential industries develop differently. Long-term value emerges later in adoption cycles.

The drawdown could range from 10% to 20%. Markets might reach negative year-to-date returns at some point. Lee explained during his Master Investor podcast appearance that even a 10% drop will feel like a bear market.

He predicts markets start strong this year. A round trip brings investors back to starting levels. Then markets finish the year strong.

Buy Pullbacks, Don’t Sell Them

Lee’s most emphatic advice centers on investor psychology. Attempting to time market bottoms and tops creates enemies of future returns. Only long-term holders consistently profit.

The April 7th tariff-related pullback in 2025 proved this point. It became one of the best entry points in five years. Numerous stocks made explosive rallies to new all-time highs.

Lee stated that trying to time the market makes you an enemy of your future performance. Investors always want to buy at the bottom. They want to sell at the top. This approach fails consistently.

His message for 2026 turbulence remains clear. View pullbacks as buying chances. Don’t view pullbacks as selling triggers. Avoid stocks only during genuine market breaks.

Institutional clients currently lack bullish positioning. This suggests upside potential remains. NYSE margin debt sits at an all-time high. But year-over-year growth of only 39% falls short of the 60% typically seen at local market tops.

The Mag 7 stocks retain appeal. Confident earnings growth projections support valuations. Lee’s top sector picks shifted to energy and basic materials. These sectors experienced extreme underperformance over five years.

The ISM manufacturing index breaking above 50 matters. Combined with Fed cuts, industrials, financials, and small caps should benefit.

Crypto Faces Critical 2026 Test

Lee maintains his Bitcoin price target of $250,000 for 2026. The target depends on establishing new all-time highs. This would confirm that the October deleveraging event is behind the market.

The single largest deleveraging event in crypto history occurred October 10th. It wiped out approximately half of market makers. These entities function as crypto’s central bank.

Lee stated that 2026 will be a really important test. If Bitcoin makes a new all-time high, that deleveraging event is behind us. When asked about his Bitcoin target, Lee confirmed the $250,000 prediction.

Ethereum presents compelling value at current levels. ETH’s price ratio to Bitcoin remains below 2021 levels. This persists despite superior blockchain capabilities.

Wall Street’s tokenization efforts concentrate on Ethereum infrastructure. BlackRock launched credit funds on Ethereum. JP Morgan launched money market funds on the blockchain.

Lee emphasized that Ethereum is really the blockchain that Wall Street begins to use. If Ethereum’s price ratio recovers to 2021 highs and Bitcoin goes to $250,000, Ethereum would trade around $12,000.

Current Ethereum levels near $3,000 suggest significant upside potential. The recovery to $12,000 requires both Bitcoin reaching $250K and ETH’s ratio normalizing.