the return to $45,000 USD

The week has started well for Bitcoin, as its price has returned to around $45,000: here are the latest analyses.

The analysis of the current price of Bitcoin in USD

An in-depth analysis reveals that there is nothing curious or important behind the return to $45,000, but only a return to the price at the beginning of the year. 

Yesterday, the price of Bitcoin had fluctuated around 44,000 USD, to the point that it had dropped below 43,300 USD overnight.

If it is a trivial lateral movement in line with the previous days. 

However, tonight at a certain point it suddenly jumped from 43,600 USD to 44,300 USD. All of this happened after the opening of the Asian stock exchanges. 

Taking in particular the Hang Seng index of the Hong Kong stock exchange, in China, there was a strong drop of more than 2% at the opening. However, after a few hours there was a small rebound of +0.4% in just 5 minutes. A few minutes later, there was a small jump in BTC. 

While all this was happening, the Dollar Index was slightly declining, after having risen last night, and before rising again in the morning. 

It is possible that there has been some intervention by the Chinese central bank in the financial markets that has injected liquidity, part of which may have ended up in Bitcoin.

Approximately four hours after the closing of the Hong Kong stock exchange, with the Dollar Index once again declining, the rise of Bitcoin continued, surpassing $45,000 USD. 

News from the SEC

This latest rise probably not by chance started shortly after the release of the news that many applicants for Bitcoin spot ETFs in the USA have submitted the final documentation to the SEC, including fee percentages.

The idea has spread that the SEC now has all the necessary information to be able to decide on it, to the point that someone even speculates that it could do it today itself. 

These news, along with the decline of the Dollar Index, may have favored the rise of Bitcoin towards 45,000 USD. 

It should be remembered that the annual peak of 2024 is $45,900 reached on January 2nd, and that this is a level that has not been seen since early April 2022, almost two years ago. 

Moreover, today’s rise above $45,000 occurred while the American stock exchanges were still closed, that is, while mainly the European financial markets were active. 

At this point, it is reasonable to imagine that before the final approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs by the SEC, the price of Bitcoin could even reach new annual highs. 

Dominance

Another thing to note is that today altcoins are performing worse than Bitcoin. 

There is indeed a trend of recovery in Bitcoin’s dominance. 

This trend had actually started a year ago, but it had stopped in early December. 

The month of December was characterized by a good performance of many altcoins, and in particular by an extraordinary +134% of Solana.

This strong increase in altcoin prices was most likely generated by a speculative mini-bubble that also temporarily reduced Bitcoin’s dominance. 

However, starting from the end of December, the mini speculative bubble has slightly deflated, and so the dominance of BTC has started to rise again. 

Currently, it is still slightly below that of early December, but it is close to the highs since April 2021, which is the peak of the first part of the last major bull run. 

The wait for ETFs and the related analysis of the Bitcoin price in USD

All of this is probably largely due to the anticipation for the approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs by the SEC. 

This approval is not guaranteed, but according to ETF experts, it would now be likely at 95%. 

Furthermore, it also seems extremely likely that it could arrive by Wednesday, the day when the SEC’s deadline to respond to Ark’s request expires, although some speculate that it could arrive as early as today. 

The real key point, however, is not the approval, which many now take for granted, but the success or failure in the markets. 

Rumors are circulating, unconfirmed, that BlackRock would be ready to buy BTC on the market for an amount of up to two billion dollars in just the first week of presence on the markets of its ETF. 

On the other hand, the Bitcoin spot ETFs that have been present on the Toronto Stock Exchange in Canada for some time have never achieved great success, so there is also a risk that the reception from traditional investors may prove to be timid. 

What will make the biggest difference could be the sponsorship from broadcasters like BlackRock and Fidelity, whose clients have billions of dollars available to invest in these new derivative products. 

In theory, Bitcoin spot ETFs could debut on the markets as soon as they are approved by the SEC, although at the time of the approval news, a sell the news could trigger a Bitcoin price drop. However, in the event of immediate success of these ETFs on traditional markets, the price of BTC could rise again.