The Q4 of the halving year is bullish

Almost 5 months have passed since Bitcoin completed its fourth halving in history in April, and now highly bullish predictions about the future price of the cryptocurrency are starting to spread.

Historically, Bitcoin performs very well in the last quarter of the halving years, with historical performances that bode well for the next 3 months.

Another bullish indicator for the price of the cryptocurrency concerns the trend of the miners’ revenue, currently at the lowest point in the last 4 years.

Are you ready to see Bitcoin traded at 100,000 dollars? 

Analysis of the historical performance of Bitcoin: focus on the post-halving period

Before moving on to future predictions of Bitcoin’s price, we must necessarily take a look at the historical post-halving performance of the crypto.

In fact, the four-yearly halving event of the block reward usually leads to a general increase in prices, but not all months of that year are positive.

Furthermore, the bullish phase that follows the halving is limited by a well-defined time window, as has happened in the last 12 years.

It is therefore necessary to understand at least in which phase of the cycle of Bitcoin we are at this moment, and if there is still room for a price rally.

Investor Lark Davis comes to our aid, who in a post on X analyzes how the orange coin has moved in past years in conjunction with the halving.

The first data that catches the eye concerns the favorable effect on the price of Bitcoin in all Q4 of each halving. In particular, in the last 3 months of 2012, the crypto had grown by 8.47%. In the same period of 2016 and 2020, it had recorded a pump of 58.17% and 168.02%, respectively. 

Calculating the performance of Bitcoin in each Q4, the average growth amounts to 88.84%, leaving room for explosive forecasts for the coming months of trading.

Very interesting how even in the Q1 and Q3 quarters following the halving year, it has always marked excellent price returns.

In Q1 of 2013 Bitcoin skyrocketed with an increase of 539.96%, in 2017 it grew respectably by 11.89%, and in 2021 it doubled with a 103.17%.

In Q3 of the same years, it reported an increase of 40.6%, 80.41%, and 25.01% respectively.

If history were to repeat itself, the forecasts for the next 12 months predict 3 out of 4 quarters of positive price action for the price of the crypto.

The revenue of miners reaches the multi-year low after the latest halving: ready for the price rebound 

To offer support to the bullish forecasts under the theory of post-halving historical performance of Bitcoin’s price, we see the trend of miners’ revenue.

In fact, the halving has a direct effect on the income of the workers in the cryptographic network, which then impacts the value of the crypto itself.

After each halving of the block reward, in fact, the miners reach the lowest level of their business, only to re-emerge in parallel with the appreciation of Bitcoin.

As the expert “QuintenFrancois” observes on X, we might be close to the bottom of this indicator.

According to data from The Block, at this moment we are at the lowest point in the last 4 years regarding the profitability of miners.

After having reached a peak in March 2024, also due to the increase in fees with the explosion of Ordinals, the revenues plummeted with the halving in April.

As has historically happened in these situations, we expect an imminent trend reversal, such as to offer greater economic security to società di mining.

According to historical forecasts, as early as next month there could be the first sign of optimism in the price of Bitcoin.

Future predictions on the price of Bitcoin: will the halving still have the expected effect?

Historical data of the halving in hand, let’s now see what experts say about future predictions of the price of Bitcoin.

At the beginning of the year, the well-known financial company Standard Chartered had hypothesized a target of 100,000 dollars, later raised to 150,000 dollars, for Bitcoin by the end of 2024.

The same London bank, driven by a bullish spirit on the cryptocurrency, would even have claimed to expect the crypto to reach 250,000 dollars as the top of 2025.

In the world of finance, the terms “bull” and “bear” are often used to describe market trends. A “bull” market is characterized by rising prices, while a “bear” market is marked by falling prices. Investors need to understand these concepts to make informed decisions.

The CEO of Vaneck, a 90 billion dollar hedge fund, in a recent interview with Fox Business reportedly revealed his super bull prediction on Bitcoin.

In particular, Jan Van Eck believes that Bitcoin will soon reach 350,000 dollars, placing the cryptocurrency at the same level as gold.

Supporting his thesis are the factors of Bitcoin’s intrinsic value, digital scarcity, and mass adoption through ETF.

In the financial markets, the terms “bull” and “bear” are used to describe the general trend of the market. A “bull” market is characterized by rising prices, while a “bear” market is characterized by falling prices. Investors often use these terms to indicate their market outlook and strategy.

Broadening the horizons slightly, let’s see what the predictions of Michael Saylor, CEO of the well-known business intelligence company Microstrategy, are.

Recently Saylor reportedly told CNBC that he expects a compounding effect on the price of Bitcoin at each halving.

According to his projections, in the next 21 years the cryptocurrency could even exceed 13 million dollars, becoming the most capitalized financial asset on the planet.

More modest, however, are the forecasts of the web portal DigitalCoinPrice, which see Bitcoin reaching a minimum price of 52,000 dollars in 2024 and a maximum price of 121,000 dollars.

Widening the time frame, optimism for the future also emerges here, with Bitcoin values oscillating between 392,000 dollars and 435,000 dollars for 2030.