Technical Indicators Show Potential Breakout Above $2.36

TLDR

• XRP price shows potential for major rally to $12 by 2026 according to Elliott Wave pattern analysis
• Whale addresses have accumulated over 440 million XRP tokens in the last month
• XRP currently trading around $2.17 with resistance at $2.36
• 71% of Binance futures traders are taking long positions on XRP
• SEC has dropped its lawsuit against Ripple, marking a significant legal victory

XRP price has experienced a minor 5% drop last week, trading at approximately $2.17 as of May 5, 2025. Despite this short-term pullback, technical indicators and whale activity suggest a potentially massive rally in the coming months and years.

An analyst using Elliott Wave theory has identified a bullish formation on XRP’s weekly chart. According to this analysis, Ripple has completed a corrective pullback phase between the $1.65 and $2.05 range.

This completion signals preparation for the third wave of the Elliott pattern. The third wave is typically characterized by strong and sustained upward movement.

Based on this pattern, the analyst projects a possible 2,900% surge in XRP price. This would translate to around $12 per token between 2025 and 2026.

For this bullish scenario to play out, XRP must continue forming higher highs and higher lows. An emerging ascending channel on the charts supports this possibility.

Whale Activity Confirms Bullish Outlook

On-chain data reveals significant accumulation by XRP whales over the past month. Two categories of large holders have been particularly active.

Addresses holding between 1 million and 10 million XRP have purchased 190 million tokens in the last 30 days. Even more impressive, addresses with holdings between 10 million and 100 million coins have accumulated 440 million XRP during the same period.

The number of addresses holding 10,000 or more XRP has now surpassed 300,000, marking an all-time high according to Glassnode data. This whale accumulation continued even during price consolidation.

🐋 Whales Are Loading Up on $XRP

On-chain data from Santiment reveals that whales have been on a buying spree over the past month:

🔹 Addresses holding 1M-10M XRP scooped up 190M tokens

🔹 Larger whales (10M–100M XRP) accumulated a massive 440M

Whales often buy low in… pic.twitter.com/1SgEagjhxH

— Trader Edge (@Pro_Trader_Edge) May 5, 2025

Such buying behavior from large holders often precedes major price movements. Whales typically accumulate when prices are relatively low, anticipating future upswings.

This whale positioning aligns with the Elliott Wave analysis, further supporting the case for a potential price explosion that could transform XRP into a double-digit cryptocurrency.

Short-term analysis shows XRP potentially breaking out from a falling wedge pattern on the four-hour chart. If this breakout occurs, it could trigger a 7% rally to $2.36 in the near term.

Success at $2.36 could clear the path for movement toward $2.59. However, if support at $2.13 fails, XRP might drop to $1.96.

The RSI currently reads at 43 on the four-hour chart, indicating bears have slight control in the immediate term. Daily chart analysis shows more bullish indicators, with RSI above 54 and MACD flashing green histogram bars.

Derivatives data presents a mixed picture. While XRP volume is up 24%, open interest has decreased slightly. The long/short ratio is under 1, suggesting derivatives traders aren’t yet overwhelmingly bullish.

Recent liquidation data shows $5.24 million in liquidations, with $4.89 million being long positions. This indicates bullish traders have faced some punishment for their positions.

Regulatory Victory Boosts Sentiment

The SEC has officially closed its lawsuit against Ripple after more than four years of legal battles. This development marks a significant win for the company and has boosted market sentiment.

Ripple’s Chief Legal Officer, Stuart Alderoty, framed the SEC’s withdrawal as a reflection of flawed regulatory tactics. Many legal analysts interpret this as a silent admission of weakness by the regulator.

This legal victory has contributed to the bullish sentiment among traders. On Binance, more than 71% of futures traders are now taking long positions on XRP, with the Long/Short Ratio rising to 2.51.

The SEC has delayed Franklin Templeton’s XRP ETF approval to June 17, 2025. According to lawyer Bill Morgan, this timing appears “potentially strategic” as it follows the expiry of the 60-day wait period for the Ripple lawsuit appeal.

Morgan has expressed bullish sentiments toward an ETF approval in 2025, which could provide another catalyst for XRP price movement.

For a substantial rally to materialize in the immediate future, XRP needs stronger buying pressure and a decisive close above recent resistance levels near $2.25. Until then, consolidation remains the primary market pattern.

The $3 level represents a key target for XRP in May 2025. A daily candlestick close above resistance levels could confirm an uptrend and bring this target into play.

XRP currently sits at the crossroads, with $2 serving as a key support level. The coming weeks will determine whether this level holds or if XRP faces further downward pressure before its potential long-term rally.