Technical Analysis Shows Potential Breakout to $2.60

TLDR

• Analyst Egrag Crypto predicts XRP could reach $46 if it follows the first market cycle pattern, with potential targets of $12-$27 for other cycles
• Over 70% of XRP’s realized cap represents new money that entered during the past six months near price highs
• XRP is currently consolidating around $2.34 with key resistance at $2.42 that could trigger a breakout to $2.60
• On-chain metrics show strong user engagement and social volume supporting bullish sentiment
• Network activity declined over 90% since March peak, though buying pressure remains steady

XRP is trading at $2.34 as analysts point to multiple scenarios that could drive the cryptocurrency higher. The token has shown resilience after rebounding from a local low of $2.22 earlier this week.

Crypto analyst Egrag Crypto has outlined three different price projections based on historical cycles. The most optimistic scenario suggests XRP could reach $46 if it mirrors the first market cycle pattern.

#XRP – Historical Drop Zone ($12 to $46) But the Average drop is 1500%📉🚀

Let me clarify something upfront: I’m here to share data, insights, and analysis based on math, charts, and historical patterns. If anyone finds that unhelpful, feel free to block me — I’m not here for… pic.twitter.com/mb1kCvYHeU

— EGRAG CRYPTO (@egragcrypto) May 25, 2025

In the first cycle, XRP dropped below the 21 Exponential Moving Average and fell 5,550%. The token then retraced back to the 21 EMA before dropping another 2,500%.

For the second cycle scenario, the analyst projects a $12 target. This cycle saw XRP drop below the 21 EMA with a 150% breakdown, followed by a retracement and another 500% fall.

The current third cycle shows XRP has dropped below the 21 EMA with potential for a 430% rise. The analyst notes the token is retracing back to touch the 21 EMA.

Egrag Crypto suggests averaging the projections gives roughly 1,500%, pointing to a $30 target. However, his personal estimate sits at $27.

Rapid Rally Potential

The analyst has raised the possibility of XRP gaining 1,700% to reach $27 in just 60 days. This projection is based on patterns from October 2017 when XRP exploded 1,772% over 63 days to set a new all-time high.

Breaking the $3 mark remains the ultimate target in preparation for a rally to double digits. This level represents the high from the February 24 candle this year.

On-chain data reveals that over 70% of all capital stored in XRP came into the network during the past six months. This new money entered alongside the high prices recorded during this period.

The XRP Realized Cap has witnessed an explosion alongside the recent bullish push in the asset’s price. This massive capital influx occurred near the top, putting many investors in a delicate position.

Technical Analysis Shows Key Resistance

XRP faces a critical resistance level at $2.42 that has been tested multiple times. The daily chart shows a consolidation phase following a strong upward rally in early May when the price surged past $2.50.

The RSI indicator sits just above 50, showing neutral momentum. The MACD displays a bearish crossover but appears to be flattening, suggesting indecision in the market.

A successful breakout above $2.42 could pave the way for a retest of the $2.60 zone. Repeated rejections at this level may signal sustained consolidation or a potential dip towards $2.20-$2.25.

Volume has remained steady, indicating XRP might be preparing for a directional move. The $2.42 level previously acted as support-turned-resistance during XRP’s retracement.

Daily active addresses and social volume have shown consistent strength throughout May. This indicates sustained user engagement and rising investor interest.

A spike in social volume preceded the price surge earlier this month, hinting at growing community traction. Exchange inflows saw an uptick around May 9, coinciding with the price rally.

Despite minor pullbacks, XRP’s ability to maintain elevated activity levels suggests underlying demand. However, network activity has declined over 90% since the March peak when active addresses hit their highest point.

XRP continues to trade around $2.34 with buying pressure remaining steady despite the recent consolidation period.