SUI’s $22 dream: Raoul Pal sees a ‘top 5’ path for the ‘Solana killer’

• SUI could extend its rally in H2 and become a top year performer, per Raoul Pal. 
• The altcoin underperformed SOL at the end of Q3. 

Sui [SUI] had a mixed performance in H1 2025, but could still become a top-five performer in 2025, according to Raoul Pal, Founder and CEO of Real Vision. 

The ‘Solana killer’ topped $5 early in January, but the Q1 headwinds dragged it to a 44% loss. In Q2, however, the altcoin recovered 17%, and Pal expects even more gains in H2. 

In an X post, Pal projected that the altcoin could hover above $2.2, a key support in April 2025 that was a previous resistance in 2024.

He highlighted that, in the long run, the altcoin would consolidate below $3.5 before a potential breakout if BTC prints a new ATH. 

“My view is that as BTC breaks ATH’s this begins to outperform again and will remain in the top 5 majors in performance in this cycle.”

Source: TradingView 

A dream or delayed potential?

In fact, CoinGecko chimed in on the conversation with a stat that stirred curiosity. It shared that if SUI hit Solana’s [SOL] market cap of $77B, then the altcoin could be valued at $22.9 — a whopping 8x.

While that’s an optimistic projection, the real-time SUI/SOL ratio tells a different story.

The altcoin outperformed SOL by 56% in late April, but lagged later in Q2. Since May, SUI has underperformed SOL by 26%. Put differently, investors were better off holding SOL than SUI late in Q3. 

Source: TradingView

The weakening could extend for a few weeks before a potential rebound if the ratio defends 0.016. If that happens, then the altcoin could outperform SOL by 56% again.  

Since May, the altcoin has underperformed SOL by roughly 26%, and the SUI/SOL chart reflects a 26.7% drawdown.

That said, the ratio is hovering near its critical support at 0.0158. If this level holds, traders could see another 50%+ rebound in SUI/SOL pair performance.

DeFi boom, then bust

Sui’s Q2 recovery wasn’t just narrative-driven — part of the strong recovery was aided by the chain’s DeFi traction.

In April, Sui’s monthly DEX volume hit $11 billion, up from March’s $7 billion. This coincided with broader market recovery and memecoin mania across the Sui DeFi ecosystem. 

In May, DEX volume climbed to a record all-time high of $14.12 billion, pushing SUI’s price to $4.2.  

Since DeFi traction needs SUI for fee payments, the overall demand for the altcoin also dipped in June, pulling it from over $4 to $2.2. 

Source: DeFiLlama

Despite June’s cooldown, Pal’s long-term chart analysis shows the altcoin nearing the apex of a symmetrical triangle — a pattern known to precede breakout moves.