SUI continues in the downtrend seeing light at the $1.13 level but RSI at 27 in the oversold region; critical support $0.9980 and resistance $1.1540 should be monitored. Bitcoin’s downtrend makes a cautious approach mandatory for altcoins.
Executive Summary
SUI, as of February 4, 2026, is maintaining its downtrend at the $1.13 level with a 1.38% decline, giving an oversold signal with RSI at 27.08 while MACD confirms bearish momentum with a negative histogram. In terms of market structure, the price continues to stay below EMA20 ($1.36), trapped in the $0.9980 support and $1.1540-$1.2180 resistance range; volume is at a moderate level of $484M but Bitcoin’s downtrend is increasing altcoin risk. Bullish target $1.65 is low probability (score 30), bearish target $0.59 is more likely (score 22); short-term long positions are risky, a support breakdown could generate a sell signal.
Market Structure and Trend Status
Current Trend Analysis
SUI’s overall trend direction is clearly downward; it experienced a 1.38% loss in the $1.07-$1.17 range over the last 24 hours. The Supertrend indicator is giving a bearish signal and marking $1.42 as resistance. Price action has moved away from the higher low structure by forming lower highs and lower lows. Multi-timeframe analysis (1D/3D/1W) identifies a total of 9 strong levels: 1 support/3 resistances on 1D timeframe, 2 supports/1 resistance on 3D, and 2 supports/4 resistances dominant on 1W. This draws a resistance-heavy picture in the weekly view and supports the overall downtrend. Despite short-term recovery attempts, movement continues within the bearish channel in the big picture.
Structural Levels
The main structural support at $0.9980 (score 71/100) plays a critical role in its previous position; if this level breaks, the next target could shift to around $0.85. On the upside, $1.1540 (68/100) is the first resistance, followed by $1.2180 (67/100) and long-term $2.0368 (60/100). According to Fibonacci retracements, the 38.2% level aligns around $1.15, and 50% around $1.30. Pivot point calculations show daily R1 above $1.17, yet the price could not hold in this region. The overall structure has the appearance of a bearish flag formation, and a breakout is expected.
Technical Indicators Report
Momentum Indicators
RSI(14) at 27.08 has entered the oversold region (below 30), producing a potential bounce signal but no divergence – this increases the risk of weakness. MACD histogram is negative and below the signal line; bearish crossover confirmation keeps momentum declines ongoing. Stochastic around 15% oversold, Williams %R at -85 shows similar alignment. There is short-term reversal hope across the momentum group but it conflicts with trend indicators.
Trend Indicators
Price is positioned below EMA20 ($1.36) and EMA50 ($1.45), providing a bearish short/medium-term outlook. Supertrend has given a bearish flip with trailing stop at $1.42. Ichimoku Cloud is red and price is below the cloud; Tenkan-Sen death cross confirmed. Parabolic SAR dots are above the price. All trend indicators confirm the downtrend with confluence, EMA death cross (20/50) continues.
Critical Support and Resistance Analysis
Supports: $0.9980 (71/100, daily low + Fib 61.8), $0.85 (secondary, weekly low), $0.75 (third, psychological). Resistance: $1.1540 (68/100, near EMA20), $1.2180 (67/100, range high), $1.42 (Supertrend), $2.0368 (60/100, ATH retrace). Multi-TF confluence: $1.15 R1 on 1D, $1.00 S1 on 3D, $1.20 R2 on 1W critical. As price approaches $1.1540 at $1.13, rejection is expected; if support test fails, bearish momentum accelerates. According to volume profile, equilibrium near $1.10 POC (point of control), no high volume node below.
Volume and Market Participation
24h volume at $484.27M is moderately high, but no decreasing tendency is seen in the downtrend – bearish candles close with high volume. OBV (on-balance volume) shows negative divergence, no accumulation. VWAP daily above $1.12 confirms selling pressure with price. Futures open interest low, funding rate negative (-0.01%) short bias. Spot volume 60%, futures 40% distribution; retail participation low, institutional sell-off impression. In volume profile, $1.07 low is low volume, volume increase required for breakout.
Risk Assessment
Risk/reward ratio on bearish target $0.5909 (score 22) is 48% downside from $1.13, bullish $1.6534 (score 30) is 46% upside – symmetric but probability tilted to bear. Stop-loss suggestion: Below $0.9980 for long, above $1.2180 for short. Main risks: BTC decline crushes altcoins (correlation 0.85+), RSI bounce fakeout, no news flow but macro Fed data could impact. Position size 1-2% risk, leverage max 3x. Overall risk score high (7/10), cautious trade.
Bitcoin Correlation
BTC at $76,658 with 2.45% decline in downtrend; Supertrend bearish, supports $75,666-$72,963-$61,211, resistance $77,817. SUI-BTC correlation 0.82, BTC breakdown pulls SUI to $0.90. If BTC dominance rises (current 52%), altcoins suppressed; BTC recovery above $77k opens SUI $1.20 test. Main BTC levels to monitor: $75k breakdown SUI short, above $78k long trigger. Altcoins in BTC’s shadow, independent rally difficult.
Conclusion and Strategic Outlook
SUI chart is clearly bearish: Despite oversold RSI bounce potential, trend, momentum, and volume confluence give sell bias. Strategy: Short on $1.1540 rejection ($0.9980 target, $1.2180 SL), scalp long to $1.20 if support holds. Long-term $2+ on hold pending BTC stabilization. Follow SUI Spot Analysis and SUI Futures Analysis. All data as of February 4, 06:36 UTC.
This analysis uses the market views and methodology of Chief Analyst Devrim Cacal.