Sui (SUI) is at a crucial juncture as traders eye whether the token can hold key support levels and maintain momentum toward challenging the $4 resistance zone.
After recent market fluctuations, SUI faces both technical and fundamental tests. With a strong demand zone near $3.25–$3.50 and institutional developments on the horizon, the coming days could define the token’s short-term trajectory.
Macro Backdrop & Market Sentiment
In the macro sphere, the U.S. Federal Reserve has restarted its rate-cutting cycle, initiating with a 0.25% reduction in September. Markets anticipate at least two additional cuts. This shift tends to push capital toward risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Sui is set to boost its ecosystem with $USDi, backed by BlackRock, and $suiUSDe, linked to Ethena’s $14.8B $USDe. Source: Tara via X
Adding to this tailwind is growing institutional demand: more crypto holdings are being added to broader treasury allocations. In parallel, inflation remains elevated, and signs of labor market weakness are compelling further easing—factors that point toward a risk-on environment more favorable to altcoins.
Together, these macro signals provide a constructive backdrop for the SUI price picture, assuming technical support zones hold.
Token Unlock Pressure & Institutional Catalysts
A significant headwind looms, however: a major token unlock. Over the period from September 29 to October 6, around 44 million SUI tokens worth approximately $143.9 million are scheduled to enter circulation, representing a substantial supply infusion. This unlock comes during a broader wave of token releases across crypto projects totaling more than $773 million in the same window.
This week’s $143M SUI unlock could trigger 5–15% swings, with key support at $3.23, resistance at $3.27, and strong daily volumes. Source: eye zen hour via X
The looming sale pressure from this unlock is already felt: SUI recently declined around 3%, dropping from $3.32 to $3.21. At the same time, Coinbase has confirmed that SUI futures will be listed on its derivatives platform starting October 20. This move could stimulate institutional flows and counterbalance some of the selling pressure. Still, the immediate market response has been relatively muted, with traders weighing both bullish and bearish factors.
SUI Price Prediction & Outlook
Given these dynamics, the $3.25–$3.50 zone is critical. If SUI can sustain support here, it keeps alive the path toward targets like $3.61 and possibly $3.97. A pullback into this zone could provide a confluence entry opportunity, especially if demand and discount zones align.
SUI presents a swing long opportunity, with a bullish higher-timeframe bias targeting $3.61–$3.97 from the $3.25 confluence demand and discount zone. Source: UA CAPITAL on TradingView
However, the scenario is not without risks. Should support break, the bullish structure may unravel, exposing the token to a deeper correction. Token unlock pressure could exacerbate this downside. On the flip side, success in defending this zone, paired with positive institutional catalysts, could help SUI reclaim momentum toward resistance levels near $4 and beyond.
Final Thoughts
Sui (SUI) finds itself at a pivotal support zone between $3.25 and $3.50, where buyers are likely to defend against further downside. The combination of technical demand zones and discount-level confluence makes this area critical for determining the token’s next move. Traders should watch price reactions closely, as holding this support could pave the way for a rally toward $3.61 and potentially $3.97.
Sui was trading at around $3.56, up 9.34% in the last 24 hours at press time. Source: Brave New Coin
However, challenges remain. The ongoing $144 million token unlock introduces short-term selling pressure, while the upcoming Coinbase futures listing may attract institutional interest. These opposing forces create a delicate balance, and market participants will need to monitor both technical and fundamental signals to gauge whether SUI can maintain momentum and advance toward the $4 mark.