SUI Price Prediction After Resolving the January Mainnet Outage

The Sui market shifted to a period of stability following a late-2025 decline that was replaced by a steep structural recovery. This came after the mainnet outage that temporarily halted the processing of transactions and caused a confidence shock. 

Despite the interruption, the behavior of the wider market was orderly. Participants aggregated exposure instead of quitting which indicated re-evaluation and not panic. The emphasis is now on whether this stabilization is re-accumulation or a transitory pause in a more general corrective cycle.

January 14 Outage Revealed Consensus Stress, Not Systemic Failure

The January 14 mainnet outage originated from an edge-case flaw in how Sui’s consensus engine processed conflicting transactions. Validators could read some transaction states differently, generating incompatible checkpoint proposals. With such inconsistencies permeating the network, the network did not reach the stake-weighted agreement necessary to certify new checkpoints.

When a significant proportion of the validators started signing conflicting checkpoint data, the network automatically stalled. This protection terminated block construction and update of transactions, and did not allow finalization of an unreliable ledger state. Although this mechanism was disruptive, it maintained integrity and prevented more structural damage throughout the chain.

The outage occurred at approximately six hours and during the outage, all transaction submissions timed out, but users could still access read-only data that represented the last certified state. Approximately $1billion of on-chain value was temporarily idle. Nonetheless, there were no rollbacks of any verified transactions and the chain did not experience any fork.

The Sui team discovered the problem and issued a fix to address the consensus commit logic. Validators organized upgrades to enable a normal operation once again. This reaction minimized the uncertainty instead of exacerbating it, and confirmed the belief that this disruption represented a confined case of consensus edge, rather than a systemic security or design failure.

Liquidity Sweep Confirms Re-Accumulation, Targets Stay Intact

Community-led SUI price analysis frames recent behavior as structurally driven rather than reactionary. Following a larger timeframe correction, the price swept sell-side liquidity below the preceding weekly lows. The action was in line with the liquidity grab that was pointed out on the chart, and the weak positioning was cleared off prior to the directional participation.

The price was swept into the $1.35-$1.40 demand zone as a result of that liquidity sweep, and that zone overlapped a well-defined bullish order block. Buyers took up residual supply in a vigorous manner, precipitating a sharp turnaround. The recovery closed the surrounding fair value gap which attested to controlled re-entry instead of the short-covering volatility.

The accumulation came in within the range of $1.30-$1.50 where the positioning already provided about a 50% upside response. Price now no longer requires aggressive expansion, with that leg in place. Rather, behavior indicates digestion, as the structure directs expectations as opposed to momentum.

This shift represents an asymmetric-risk weekly arrangement of patience. The long-term forecasts to the $5, $10 and $20 regions are all structurally sound, assuming that the reclaimed demand base remains intact. Ultimately, the focus is on structure, rather than timing.

SUI Price Action Maintains a Defined Recovery Path

From a daily perspective, SUI price has transitioned from correction into recovery as higher lows replace sell-driven extensions. The exhaustion came with the double bottom rebound at the demand zone of $1.35-1.40 and sparked an impulsive rise that regained the lost ground of $1.75. This level anchors the near-term structure.

At the time of press, SUI market value sits near $1.80, holding above that reclaimed base. Prices now squeeze just below the $1.85-$1.90 zone, which is a sign of consolidation following growth. Such behaviour implies equilibrium and not distribution since buyers will persist in defending pullbacks.

Provided the price stays above $1.76, the main direction of the market is a drive to the psychological and horizontal level of about $2.00. That level is the first significant test of recovery strength, at which responses are probable but not structurally dangerous.

Above $2.00, $2.20 and $2.60 are the intermediate supply areas. A follow-through at $2.60 will lead to continuation towards $3.00. However, a loss of $1.76 would delay upside momentum. Besides, a breakdown below $1.40 would invalidate the broader long-term SUI price outlook.

Summary 

SUI price behavior reflects recovery grounded in structure, not headlines. The disruption of the network did not break the participation or nullify the demand but put the situation into uncertainty. 

Continuation is the prevailing outcome as long as reclaimed support is maintained. The loss of structural support changes that bias. Until then, price direction is observing structure, rather than sentiment.