Stellar (XLM) Holds $0.43 Despite Bullish Protocol Upgrade and Rising TVL

Quick Take

• XLM currently trading at $0.43 (+0.16% in 24h)
• Stellar’s RSI at 53.73 indicates neutral momentum with bullish trend intact
• Protocol 23 upgrade and record TVL of $152M highlight growing ecosystem adoption

What’s Driving Stellar Price Today?

The XLM price has remained remarkably stable despite a wave of positive developments over the past week. Most notably, Stellar’s Total Value Locked reached an all-time high of $152.11 million on August 13, representing an impressive 80% increase from July levels. This surge was primarily driven by protocols like Blend, Stellar DEX, and Aquarius Stellar, indicating genuine ecosystem growth.

The Protocol 23 upgrade, with its mainnet vote completed on August 14, introduces significant enhancements to smart contract efficiency and cost reduction. However, the XLM price has shown minimal reaction to this technical milestone, suggesting that traders may be waiting for broader market catalysts or more concrete adoption metrics.

PayPal’s PYUSD stablecoin integration on August 12 represents another strategic win for Stellar’s infrastructure, potentially opening new avenues for global payment processing. Additionally, THORWallet’s full XLM support enhances the token’s accessibility within DeFi applications. Despite these fundamentally positive developments, the XLM price remains consolidative, indicating that market participants are taking a wait-and-see approach.

XLM Technical Analysis: Neutral Signals Emerge

Stellar technical analysis reveals a mixed but generally constructive picture. XLM’s RSI sits at 53.73, placing it firmly in neutral territory without overbought or oversold conditions. This positioning suggests room for movement in either direction, depending on market catalysts.

The moving average structure tells a bullish story, with XLM trading above all major timeframes. The current price of $0.43 sits above the 20-day SMA ($0.42), 50-day SMA ($0.39), and significantly above the 200-day SMA ($0.31), confirming the overall uptrend remains intact.

However, XLM’s MACD histogram shows -0.0026, indicating bearish momentum divergence despite the bullish trend. The Stochastic oscillator presents conflicting signals with %K at 53.58 and %D at 58.42, suggesting consolidation rather than directional momentum.

Stellar’s Bollinger Bands show XLM positioned at 0.6145 of the band width, indicating the price is closer to the upper band ($0.47) than the lower band ($0.37), though not in extreme territory.

Stellar Price Levels: Key Support and Resistance

Based on Binance spot market data, Stellar support levels are well-defined. The immediate support sits at $0.36, which aligns closely with the lower Bollinger Band at $0.37. A break below this level could expose the stronger support zone at $0.22, representing XLM’s 52-week low.

XLM resistance levels present clear targets for bullish breakouts. The immediate resistance at $0.47 coincides with the upper Bollinger Band, making it a critical level to watch. A sustained break above this threshold could propel XLM toward the stronger resistance at $0.52, not far from the 52-week high of $0.50.

The current pivot point at $0.43 serves as a key battleground, with XLM trading precisely at this level. This positioning makes the next directional move particularly significant for short-term price action.

Should You Buy XLM Now? Risk-Reward Analysis

For conservative traders, the current XLM/USDT setup offers limited immediate upside with the price hovering near resistance levels. The neutral RSI and bearish MACD histogram suggest waiting for either a pullback to the $0.36-$0.37 support zone or a clear breakout above $0.47 resistance.

Swing traders might consider the strong fundamental backdrop compelling, particularly given the Protocol 23 upgrade and rising TVL metrics. The risk-reward ratio becomes attractive with a stop-loss below $0.36 and targets toward $0.47-$0.52. The Daily ATR of $0.03 indicates moderate volatility, suitable for position sizing.

Long-term investors may view current levels as accumulation territory, given Stellar’s expanding ecosystem and technical improvements. The significant distance above the 200-day moving average ($0.31) provides a substantial cushion for longer-term holdings, though near-term volatility should be expected.

The enhanced transaction processing capability targeting 5,000 TPS represents a fundamental improvement that could drive future adoption, though its price impact remains to be seen.

Conclusion

XLM price action reflects a market in consolidation despite overwhelmingly positive fundamental developments. The Protocol 23 upgrade, record TVL, and expanding partnerships provide a strong foundation, but immediate price catalysts appear limited. Traders should monitor the $0.47 resistance level for bullish confirmation or the $0.36 support for potential buying opportunities. The next 24-48 hours will likely determine whether XLM can capitalize on its recent achievements or requires additional time for market digestion.

Image source: Shutterstock