Alvin Lang
Jul 27, 2025 08:55
XLM trades at $0.44 (-0.27%) as technical indicators show mixed signals following a spectacular 75% surge in July 2025 ahead of Protocol 23 upgrade.
Quick Take
• XLM currently trading at $0.44 (-0.27% in 24h)
• Stellar’s RSI at 62.99 suggests neutral momentum despite recent weekly decline
• Protocol 23 upgrade scheduled for August 14 driving fundamental optimism
• XLM price reached six-month highs above $0.50 before recent pullback
What’s Driving Stellar Price Today?
The XLM price action reflects a natural consolidation following an extraordinary July performance that saw Stellar surge between 75% to 120%. Despite a 13.46% decline over the past week, the broader context remains overwhelmingly bullish for XLM, with the token hitting dual all-time milestones in historical price performance.
The primary catalyst driving recent Stellar momentum has been anticipation surrounding Protocol 23, Stellar’s major network upgrade scheduled for August 14, 2025. This upgrade introduces smart contract functionality and scaling improvements that could significantly enhance network performance and utility. The technical upgrade represents one of the most significant developments in Stellar’s ecosystem, explaining why XLM broke above the $0.50 mark for the first time since January 2025.
Market participants are viewing the recent weekly correction as profit-taking after XLM’s parabolic move rather than a fundamental shift in sentiment. The token’s ability to maintain support above key technical levels suggests underlying strength despite the short-term pullback.
XLM Technical Analysis: Mixed Signals After Bullish Breakout
Stellar technical analysis reveals a complex picture as XLM consolidates recent gains. The most significant signal comes from Stellar’s RSI at 62.99, positioning XLM in neutral territory after cooling off from potentially overbought levels during its July rally.
XLM’s moving average structure remains decisively bullish, with the current price of $0.44 trading well above all major moving averages. Stellar’s SMA 20 at $0.42 provides immediate support, while the SMA 50 at $0.32 and SMA 200 at $0.31 demonstrate the strength of the long-term uptrend. This moving average alignment is particularly significant for Stellar, as it represents a clear shift from the previous bearish structure.
However, XLM RSI momentum indicators present a more cautious picture. Stellar’s MACD histogram shows -0.0070, indicating bearish momentum in the short term. The XLM MACD signal at 0.0462 above the MACD line at 0.0392 suggests the recent bullish momentum may be losing steam temporarily.
Stellar’s Bollinger Bands provide additional context, with XLM trading near the middle band at $0.42 and a %B position of 0.5687. This positioning suggests XLM has room to move in either direction without reaching extreme overbought or oversold conditions.
Stellar Price Levels: Key Support and Resistance
Based on Binance spot market data, Stellar support levels are clearly defined with immediate support at $0.25 and strong support at $0.22. These levels represent the foundation of XLM’s recent bullish structure and would be critical to maintain for continued upward momentum.
On the resistance side, XLM resistance appears at $0.52, which aligns with both immediate and strong resistance levels. This level represents the recent highs where XLM encountered selling pressure, making it a crucial breakout point for future gains.
The XLM/USDT trading pair’s current position at $0.44 places it right at the pivot point, suggesting a decision point for near-term direction. Stellar’s 52-week high of $0.56 provides the ultimate resistance target, while the 52-week low of $0.22 marks the extreme downside support.
Stellar’s daily ATR of $0.04 indicates moderate volatility, giving traders clear risk parameters for position sizing. The 24-hour trading range between $0.46 and $0.43 shows relatively tight consolidation, typical of assets preparing for their next significant move.
Should You Buy XLM Now? Risk-Reward Analysis
For swing traders, the current XLM price presents an interesting risk-reward setup. With Stellar support levels at $0.25 providing a clear stop-loss reference point, traders could target the $0.52 resistance level for a favorable 2:1 risk-reward ratio. The Protocol 23 upgrade on August 14 provides a fundamental catalyst that could drive price action.
Day traders should focus on the tight $0.43-$0.46 range, using Stellar’s RSI and MACD signals for entry and exit timing. The neutral RSI suggests XLM could move in either direction, making range trading strategies potentially profitable in the near term.
Long-term investors might view any weakness toward Stellar support levels as an accumulation opportunity, particularly given the strong fundamental backdrop with Protocol 23 introducing smart contracts. However, risk management remains crucial given the recent parabolic move and potential for further profit-taking.
The key risk factor for all XLM positions is a break below the $0.25 support level, which could signal a deeper correction toward the $0.22 strong support. Conversely, a breakout above $0.52 resistance could target the 52-week high at $0.56.
Conclusion
XLM price action over the next 24-48 hours will likely depend on whether Stellar can hold above the $0.42 SMA 20 support level. While short-term momentum appears mixed, the fundamental backdrop with Protocol 23 and the strong moving average structure suggest any weakness may be temporary. Traders should monitor the $0.52 resistance level for potential breakout opportunities while maintaining strict risk management given recent volatility.
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Source: https://blockchain.news/news/20250727-stellar-xlm-bulls-fight-back-after-75-july-rally-despite