Solana’s 2026 target – Momentum, FOMO, and the $400 question!

2026 is here, and investors are busy reshuffling portfolios.

However, with macro volatility still in its early phases, treating the current chop as a clear breakout signal may be premature. In this environment, capital rotation into higher-risk assets is likely to remain gradual.

Against this backdrop, HODLer conviction becomes critical. Notably, for Solana [SOL], the stakes are especially high. In fact, from a technical standpoint, SOL stood out as the worst-performing large-cap, ending 2025 down 35%.

Source: TradingView (SOL/USDT)

That’s not all either as since September, SOL hasn’t carved out a reliable support.

Technically, Solana has printed four lower lows, with the most recent forming near $120. This suggested that the support remains fragile, putting HODLer conviction to the test, where capitulation may appear to be the safer option.

That being said, Solana’s 2026 roadmap tells us a different story. 

From key network upgrades and sector-wise development to strategic partnerships, the ecosystem appears to be positioning for renewed “FOMO.” In fact, some projections are even calling for a $400 year-end target.

Solana’s 2026 setup – Conviction vs. technical weakness

Given SOL’s setup, a $400-target looks stretched.

However, its weakness hasn’t shown up in institutional positioning yet. In fact, 2025 marked a key inflection point, with Solana making real progress in putting its on-chain capabilities to practical use.

A clear signal of this shift is RWA TVL, which reflects the capital being tokenized on-chain. On Solana, RWA value has climbed to a record $800 million – Up 325% from the start of 2025. That’s $600 million in net inflows. 

Source: DeFiLlama

Put simply, Solana’s fundamentals are reinforcing HODLing sentiment.

Now, looking at the 2026 roadmap, this isn’t random. With institutional positioning starting to translate into real on-chain use, Solana is clearly gearing its ecosystem to attract more institutional capital.

That makes the $400-target hard to ignore. 

Since HODLer conviction is holding, once the market shifts back to risk-on, SOL’s technical weakness could give way. All in, Solana’s 2026 setup looks solid, with fundamentals, adoption, and roadmap momentum lining up.

Final Thoughts

• Solana remains the worst-performing large-cap, testing HODLer conviction. 
• However, 2026’s roadmap may be building up momentum for renewed FOMO.