TLDR
- SOL has fallen below $200, down from its recent high of $253 (19% drop in a week)
- Grayscale’s spot SOL ETF faces first approval deadline on October 10, 2025
- On-chain data shows 25% decline in daily active addresses, signaling reduced network activity
- SOL may break its 4-year streak of positive September performances
- Technical indicators show potential short-term bottom forming with RSI in bearish territory at 40.54
Solana’s price has taken a significant hit, falling below the $200 mark and erasing its recent rally to $253. The 19% decline that occurred in less than a week has shaken market confidence, but an upcoming ETF decision might provide fresh momentum for the popular cryptocurrency.
The token dropped to $192 on Thursday, continuing a downward trend that began after reaching an eight-month high earlier in the month. This price action has many traders reassessing SOL’s short-term prospects.
A key catalyst on the horizon is Grayscale’s spot SOL exchange-traded fund decision, with its first approval deadline set for October 10. This verdict could determine whether institutional capital starts flowing into SOL in a manner similar to what Bitcoin and Ethereum experienced over the past year.
While the REX Osprey Staking SOL ETF launched in July offers some exposure, analysts believe a pure spot ETF product would enable more direct institutional participation. This could potentially unlock deeper liquidity and wider adoption for the token.
The upcoming decision is just one of several ETF rulings expected. The US Securities and Exchange Commission is scheduled to review five additional applications, with a final deadline on October 16, 2025. These include proposals from companies like Bitwise, 21Shares, VanEck, Grayscale, and Canary.
1/ We believe Solana is approaching a major inflection point in its adoption—by consumers, fintechs, & institutions.
Blue-chip companies like Stripe & PayPal are starting to build on it.
The stories for Bitcoin and Ethereum have largely been told. Solana's is just beginning
— Pantera Capital (@PanteraCapital) September 18, 2025
Institutional Potential
Asset managers at Pantera Capital recently referred to SOL as “next in line for its institutional moment.” They cited its current under-allocation relative to BTC and ETH as a key factor. While institutions hold approximately 16% of Bitcoin and 7% of Ethereum, less than 1% of SOL’s supply is institutionally owned.
The potential for institutional growth comes as companies like Stripe and PayPal expand their integrations with the Solana blockchain, further strengthening its use case in the payments sector.
Despite the optimism surrounding potential ETF approvals, prediction markets show mixed expectations. Polymarket currently assigns just a 41% probability of SOL reaching a new all-time high in 2025, indicating some caution even as ETF speculation intensifies.
On the technical side, SOL’s price action has displayed high volatility. The token rallied to $253 from $200 in just 12 days before quickly reversing, highlighting weakening short-term momentum.
However, on higher timeframes, the broader trend remains constructive. SOL continues forming a pattern of higher highs and higher lows, keeping the daily structure bullish. The current correction is occurring within a major demand zone between $200 and $185, which overlaps with the Fibonacci retracement band often watched for technical bounces.
Network Activity Declines
On-chain metrics paint a concerning picture for Solana’s network usage. According to data from Artemis, the total number of daily active addresses interacting with Solana-based protocols has totaled 3.04 million month-to-date, representing a decline of 25%.
This drop in user engagement and network activity may be contributing to downward price pressure. When fewer wallets are actively transacting on the network, it typically signals reduced demand for the token.
SOL’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart further confirms the falling demand. At press time, this momentum indicator sits at 40.54, firmly in bearish territory. This suggests that selling pressure currently outweighs buying momentum.
The downward trend may break SOL’s impressive four-year streak of positive September performances. Historically, September has been kind to Solana, with the token rising 29% in 2021, 5.38% in 2022, 8.22% in 2023, and 12.5% in 2024.
If the current trajectory continues, SOL may close September in the red for the first time in five years. Support levels to watch include $195.55, and if that fails to hold, the price could potentially dip further to $171.88.
The four-hour chart does show some signs of seller exhaustion. The RSI has again dipped below 30, a level that has historically signaled bottoms for SOL. Since April 2025, this setup has occurred five times, with four of those occasions followed by swift recoveries.
The next few weeks will be crucial for SOL as the market awaits the ETF ruling that could potentially reset momentum and attract new institutional interest to the Solana ecosystem.
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Source: https://blockonomi.com/solana-sol-price-token-drops-19-from-recent-high-of-253/