Solana Capitulates; Here’s Why 14% Price Rally Could Be Next

Solana is showing early signs of a potential recovery after forming a classic “W” pattern on its 12-hour chart. 

This bullish structure has emerged following November’s sharp decline, and a confirmed breakout could propel SOL into a decisive upward move.

Solana Holders Provide Support

HODLer Net Position Change indicates that long-term holders are beginning to ease off their selling. Outflows are receding, signaling reduced distribution and a shift toward neutrality. This is encouraging for Solana because LTHs play a major role in stabilizing price trends. Their restraint provides room for recovery momentum to build.

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The improving sentiment among LTHs suggests confidence could soon return. As selling pressure from these influential holders diminishes, the probability of inflows rises. Historically, such transitions from heavy outflows to balanced movement have preceded stronger mid-term price rebounds for SOL.

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Solana’s NUPL metric recently slipped into the capitulation zone as market conditions deteriorated. This zone represents the lowest psychological point for investors, where fear peaks and selling exhaustion is common. Capitulation often marks the early stage of trend reversals, providing fertile ground for accumulation.

SOL has experienced this phase before. In April, NUPL also entered capitulation before a major rally took the token to new highs. With the indicator once again signaling selling exhaustion, Solana may be positioned for a similar resurgence, provided market sentiment continues to stabilize.

SOL Price Breakout Ahead

Solana is currently forming a double-bottom “W” pattern, a bullish structure implying a potential 14% breakout toward $165. A confirmed breakout from this formation would validate the reversal and place SOL back on an upward trajectory.

Trading at $143 at the time of writing, SOL is edging toward the $146 neckline. Clearing this resistance, powered by improving sentiment and positive on-chain trends, could push the token toward $157. Surpassing that barrier would open the path to $163 and ultimately the $165 target.

However, a failed breakout or renewed market weakness could break the pattern. If that occurs, Solana may drop back to its $136 support level. A loss of this support would invalidate the bullish outlook and delay recovery efforts.