Solana breaks $220 – Could a 10% SOL pullback be next?

Key Takeaways

Solana futures OI hits $7.59 billion as speculators pile in. It shows a high-beta momentum chase toward the $220 level. Is a shakeout inevitable?

This leg of the market is starting to feel like the Solana [SOL] trade. 

Less than two weeks into September, Solana has already clocked a clean 10.56% ROI, tripling Bitcoin’s [BTC] 3% bid and leaving Ethereum [ETH] lagging with -1.52% drawdown. 

Backing this, the SOL/ETH ratio was observed to be breaking out. It rallied 12.2%, making it the sharpest weekly rally since Q2.

In short, flows are chasing volatility where it’s strongest, and right now that’s Solana.

Source: TradingView (SOL/ETH)

Adding to this, the SOL/BTC ratio is showing some serious follow-through. 

While SOL/ETH is bouncing off a key support, SOL/BTC just cleared the $0.0019 resistance it hadn’t touched since Solana’s Q1 breakdown. High-beta momentum is definitely in play.

That said, there’s a gap to note. SOL/BTC’s breakout lines up, with Solana bouncing off early-August $160 support and BTC pulling back from $124k ATH. So, is Solana’s outperformance just part of temporary rotational flow?

Market depth widens as Solana clears resistance

Speculative flows are stacking into Solana’s rally.

According to Glassnode, SOL’s Futures Open Interest (OI) has hit a $7.59 billion all-time high, with nearly $1.17 billion flowing into Solana’s perpetual contracts just this month alone.

On top of that, OI rose about 3.2% from the previous day. That’s roughly $240 million flowing in just as SOL cleared the $220 resistance, signaling heavy momentum chasing.

Source: Glassnode

In short, the line between speculation and conviction is getting blurry. 

Rotational flows, and pure momentum chasers, are piling in. While Solana’s 10.56% ROI vs other high-caps justifies the move, setups like this have historically been prime bull trap territory.

High-beta momentum meets distribution risk

Solana’s stress test is just kicking in.  

Technically, the price is squaring up with the $220 handle. In fact, it is a level SOL hasn’t challenged since the Q1 breakdown, putting Solana at a key inflection point. 

On-chain, Percent Supply in Profit has jumped to 97%, at press time, the highest in six months, flagging serious distribution risk.

With SOL breaking multi-month resistance, all those underwater holders are suddenly back in the money.

Source: Glassnode

In essence, Solana is facing a high-stakes test of its structural resilience.

History shows setups like this can hit SOL hard. Look back to the 28th of August: SOL’s OI hit then-ATH of $7.33 billion, and Percent Supply in Profit topped 96.5% as SOL tested $215. 

The result? A near 10% pullback by week’s end, clearing leverage before flipping into support for the $220 retest.

In this context, Solana’s $220 breakout could be another bull trap before the next leg higher.