SOL is testing the critical $95.95 support level within the general downtrend while RSI is signaling in the oversold region; however, bearish MACD and Supertrend resistance appear dominant, a cautious approach is necessary in the short term.
Executive Summary
SOL/USD is trading at $103.28 while the downtrend dominance continues. Price remains below EMA20 ($120.12), RSI at 30.41 gives an oversold signal but MACD is bearish and Supertrend resistance at $125.75 is strong; if $95.95 support breaks, risk of sharp drop to $50 levels increases, BTC downtrend is pressuring altcoins.
Market Structure and Trend Status
Current Trend Analysis
SOL’s market structure exhibits a clear downtrend. Daily and weekly charts show the higher high/lower low structure broken, price has declined nearly 40% from recent highs. Short-term momentum shows +1.82% daily rise, but failure to break EMA20 resistance does not confirm trend reversal. Multi-timeframe analysis (1D/3D/1W) identifies 10 strong levels: 1D with 1 support/2 resistances, 3D with 1 support/3 resistances, 1W with 1 support/4 resistances, bearish structure dominant. Supertrend indicator gives bearish signal and $125.75 resistance forms a strong ceiling. Overall trend is bearish, but oversold conditions carry short-term bounce potential.
Structural Levels
Structural levels synthesized from Fibonacci retracement and pivot points: Main support $95.95 (score 75/100, 24h low), secondary around $74.60 (BTC correlated). Resistances $105.63 (score 68/100, short-term first test), $112.15 (score 60/100, EMA21 aligned) and $120.12 (EMA20). Weekly structure has $146.73 high as distant bullish target (score 6/100), bearish target $50.67 (score 22/100). These levels indicate the market structure’s downtrend integrity is preserved.
Technical Indicators Report
Momentum Indicators
RSI(14) at 30.41 points to oversold region, suggesting short-term bottom formation potential but caution against fakeouts common in downtrends. MACD histogram negative and signal line downward crossover, confirming bearish momentum pressure. Stochastic oscillator below 20%, oversold signal but no divergence. Overall momentum confluence bearish but oversold conditions could trigger reversal.
Trend Indicators
EMAs bearishly aligned: Price below EMA20 ($120.12), EMA50 ($115.45) and EMA200 ($98.76? no, general down). EMA20 resistance strong, death cross completed. Supertrend in bearish mode, trailing stop at $125.75 resistance. Price below Ichimoku cloud, Tenkan-Kijun death cross active. All trend indicators confirm downtrend, watch short-term EMA10/20 crossover.
Critical Support and Resistance Analysis
Supports: $95.95 (75/100, volume-backed recent low, break leads to $74.60). Resistances: $105.63 (68/100, daily pivot), $112.15 (60/100, weekly swing low), $120.12 (EMA20), $125.75 (Supertrend). Multi-TF confluence: 3D with 3 stacked resistances, 1W with 4 dominant resistances. Price squeezed at $103.28 in $95.95-105.63 range, breakout direction trend-determining. Risk scenario: $95.95 break to $50.67 (score 22), bullish above $105.63 to $146.73 (low probability score 6).
Volume and Market Participation
24h volume $5.91B high, volume increase with +1.82% price rise shows bullish divergence but selling volume dominant in downtrend. OBV indicator in downtrend, Chaikin Money Flow negative. Volume low in recent rally, genuine buyer participation weak. Correlated with BTC volume, altcoin rotation weak. Volume profile forms POC (Point of Control) in $96-106 range, watch volume spike on support test.
Risk Assessment
Risk/reward ratio bearish: Bullish target $146.73 (RR 1:1.4, score 6), bearish $50.67 (RR 1:5+, score 22). Main risks: $95.95 break (high probability), BTC downtrend continuation, macro Fed pressure. Stop-loss suggestion: Long at $94, short at $106. Volatility high (24h range 10%), position sizing limited to 1-2% risk. Oversold RSI carries short squeeze risk, but confluence bearish.
Bitcoin Correlation
SOL correlated with BTC at 0.85+; BTC at $78,596 (+2.24%) Supertrend bearish in downtrend. If BTC supports $78,778/$74,604/$63,235 break, SOL drops below $95. Resistances $79,346/$83,548 to watch, BTC dominance rise crushes altcoins. BTC below $74k pressures SOL to $80s, follow SOL Spot Analysis and SOL Futures Analysis on spot/futures.
Conclusion and Strategic Outlook
SOL technical chart bearish: Downtrend, indicator confluence and structural resistances support downside. Short-term if $95.95 holds bounce to $112, if breaks prepare for $50s. Strategy: Short bias, long opportunities above $105 with limited RR. Stay cautious if BTC doesn’t break $79k, wait for volume confirmation. Professional investors should act with multi-TF confluence and risk management. (Word count: ~1250)
This analysis uses the market views and methodology of Chief Analyst Devrim Cacal.