SOL Solana Tests $195 Support as SEC ETF Delay Triggers 2.7% Selloff

Quick Take

• SOL trading at $198.19 (down 2.7% in 24h) • SEC ETF decision delay until October 16 weighs on sentiment • Testing critical $195 support after breaking year-long downtrend • Following broader crypto weakness amid regulatory uncertainty

Market Events Driving Solana Price Movement

The most significant catalyst pressuring SOL price this week was the SEC’s decision to delay ruling on several Solana ETF applications until October 16, 2025. The regulatory body cited the need for additional time to evaluate market integrity and investor protection concerns, creating immediate selling pressure as traders reduced risk ahead of the pending decision.

This regulatory overhang overshadowed what had been a positive technical development earlier in the week. On October 10, Solana broke above a year-long macro downtrend that had capped price action since late 2024. The breakout reclaimed the downtrend line as support, typically signaling a momentum shift from bearish to neutral-bullish territory.

The timing contrast between these events illustrates how regulatory uncertainty can quickly override technical improvements in crypto markets. While the downtrend break suggested institutional accumulation and renewed interest in SOL, the ETF delay reminded traders that regulatory clarity remains a key overhang for alternative cryptocurrency products.

SOL Technical Analysis: Support Test After Downtrend Break

Price Action Context

SOL price currently sits just above the $195.17 daily low, representing a critical test of short-term support. The current level at $198.19 places Solana below its 7-day moving average of $199.04 and significantly under the 20-day SMA at $213.08. However, the token maintains its position well above the 200-day moving average at $173.38, preserving the longer-term bullish structure.

Trading volume on Binance spot reached over $1 billion in 24 hours, indicating heightened institutional interest during this support test. This elevated volume suggests significant participation from both buyers defending current levels and sellers taking profits ahead of regulatory clarity.

Key Technical Indicators

The RSI at 44.05 sits in neutral territory, providing room for movement in either direction without reaching oversold conditions. This reading suggests the recent selloff hasn’t reached capitulation levels, leaving potential for further downside if support breaks.

The MACD configuration shows concerning momentum with the main line at -5.22 below the signal line at -2.61, while the histogram at -2.60 confirms bearish momentum persistence. This technical setup suggests sellers remain in control of near-term price action despite the broader bullish trend.

Bollinger Bands positioning shows SOL trading at just 0.26 of the band width, indicating the token sits much closer to the lower band at $182.13 than the upper resistance at $244.03.

Critical Price Levels for Solana Traders

Immediate Levels (24-48 hours)

• Resistance: $213.08 (20-day SMA and psychological level) • Support: $195.17 (today’s low and short-term technical floor)

Breakout/Breakdown Scenarios

A break below $195 support could trigger algorithmic selling toward the $182.13 lower Bollinger Band, with stronger support emerging at $168.79. Conversely, reclaiming the $213 resistance zone would signal buyers stepping in ahead of the ETF decision, potentially targeting the $237.79 level.

SOL Correlation Analysis

Bitcoin’s concurrent weakness is amplifying Solana’s regulatory-driven decline, as institutional traders often reduce altcoin exposure when BTC shows vulnerability. This correlation has intensified during periods of regulatory uncertainty, making Bitcoin’s price action a key variable for SOL’s near-term direction.

Traditional market movements haven’t shown strong correlation with SOL price recently, as crypto-specific factors like ETF approvals and blockchain adoption metrics carry more weight for Solana’s valuation than broader equity movements.

Trading Outlook: Solana Near-Term Prospects

Bullish Case

A positive ETF decision tomorrow could trigger significant short covering and renewed institutional interest, potentially driving SOL price back toward the $237-$244 resistance zone. The successful defense of current support levels combined with regulatory clarity would validate the recent downtrend break.

Bearish Case

ETF rejection or further delays could extend the current correction toward the $168-$182 support cluster. Weak Bitcoin price action combined with continued regulatory uncertainty presents the primary risk to SOL’s technical structure.

Risk Management

Traders should consider stops below $190 to limit downside exposure while maintaining enough room for normal volatility given the 14-day ATR of $16.45. Position sizing should account for elevated volatility surrounding tomorrow’s regulatory decision.

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