Smart Entry Point or Bull Trap?

With less than a month until Ethereum’s Fusaka upgrade launches on December 3, traders face a choice: accumulate ETH or wait for clearer signals? Currently trading around $3,595, Ethereum sits in an uncomfortable middle ground after a rough October that saw the asset shed 6.8% of its value.

The upcoming network overhaul promises meaningful improvements to how Ethereum handles data and processes transactions. But technical upgrades don’t always translate to immediate price action. So what does the data actually say about timing an ETH purchase ahead of this major milestone?

What Fusaka Actually Does

Scheduled to activate December 3 at approximately 21:49 UTC, among other things, Fusaka introduces PeerDAS technology, which changes how Ethereum validates and stores transaction data. Instead of every validator storing complete copies, validators check smaller pieces and reconstruct what they need cryptographically.

As a result, Ethereum can handle 8 times more data throughput without requiring hardware upgrades. For Layer-2 networks like Arbitrum and Optimism, transaction fees drop by 75-95%. These results are backed by developer projections from testnet trials since October.

Fusaka also includes security upgrades: caps on block sizes (10 MB maximum) and per-transaction gas limits to prevent attacks that slow the system. Summarized, Fusaka is less about flashy features but ones that are crucial for network stability as it scales.

Technical Picture Tells Two Stories

Looking at Ethereum’s current price chart reveals a network under pressure. After briefly touching $3,900 in early November, ETH got rejected and now trades below what traders call the 200-day exponential moving average below $3,600. This moving average used to act as support, meaning price bounced off it going higher. Now it’s resistance, meaning price struggles to break above it.

The chart shows lower highs forming over recent weeks, with selling volume spiking on down days. Mildly put, a circumstance not typical around an imminent rally. On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index sits around 28-31, which signals “oversold” conditions and historically, that can precede bounces.

For those evaluating whether to amp a position or wait, the technical setup presents genuine uncertainty. Provided ETH reclaims $3,650–3,800 and holds it, analysts see potential for a move toward $4,270 and possibly $4,500–4,700 by year-end. That would represent roughly 20-30% upside from current levels.

The downside risk is meaningful nonetheless. Failure to hold support at $3,530 could trigger selling down to $3,000, with $2,800 as the next major psychological level below that. A drop to $2,500 would erase most of 2025’s gains and likely upend near-term bullish narratives.

November’s Historical Edge

A silver lining and an argument in favor of a bullish turn is that Ethereum historically performed well in November, averaging 6.93% gains over the past eight years. Last November delivered a standout 47.4% rally. Seasonal patterns don’t guarantee anything but they do provide crucial context for probability.

If November 2025 follows historical patterns, current prices could represent an attractive entry. But seasonal strength works best when it aligns with other catalysts. In this case, that catalyst would be Fusaka demonstrating clear benefits that attract new capital to Ethereum’s ecosystem.

The Upgrade Risk

While testnet launches went smoothly on Holesky, Sepolia, and Hoodi, mainnet activations carry different risks. Coordination failures, unexpected bugs, or synchronization issues could temporarily destabilize the network. Ethereum’s developers have run extensive tests, but complexity creates risk, and Fusaka represents one of the most ambitious technical changes since The Merge in 2022.

Making the Call

For short-term traders, the setup offers potential but requires tight risk management. Scaling into positions in the $3,400–3,600 range with stops below $3,200 creates a defined-risk trade capturing upside if Fusaka catalyzes buying while limiting losses if it disappoints.

For longer-term holders, current prices present reasonable accumulation opportunity. The network’s trajectory toward improved scalability and broader institutional adoption remains intact. Major institutions including State Street and PayPal continue building on Ethereum.

Nevertheless, context matters. Ethereum faces competition from alternative blockchains, regulatory uncertainty persists, and macro conditions continue pressuring risk assets. Even fundamentally sound cryptocurrencies can experience extended drawdowns.

For those deciding whether to enter or add to ETH positions, the confluence of oversold technicals, whale accumulation, and a meaningful upgrade creates a setup worth considering. In case the decision is positive, ChangeHero is the go-to place to buy Ethereum with a credit card without spending excessive time on setting up an account or going through a KYC procedure for purchases below a threshold.

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