Sellers Defend $0.41 As Open Interest Rises Into Downtrend

• ADA remains capped below $0.41, with Supertrend and descending resistance keeping the daily structure bearish.
• Exchange inflows continue to signal distribution, limiting follow-through on short-term rebounds.
• Rising open interest and long-heavy positioning increase downside risk if $0.37 support breaks.

Cardano price today trades near $0.385, attempting to stabilize after another rejection below descending resistance. The move follows a sharp selloff earlier in the week that dragged ADA to fresh December lows before dip buyers stepped in near the $0.37 area. Despite the bounce, structure remains under pressure as sellers continue to control the higher-timeframe trend.

Daily Trend Remains Bearish Below Supertrend And SAR

On the daily chart, ADA remains firmly below its falling trendline that has capped price since August. The Supertrend sits at $0.4075, while Parabolic SAR remains overhead near $0.3310, confirming that the broader bias has not flipped.

Price is also trading well below former breakdown levels from November, with no daily close above the descending resistance in more than six weeks. The failure to reclaim $0.41 keeps ADA locked in a corrective phase rather than a basing structure.

The long-term picture shows no higher lows and no trend repair. Until that changes, rallies remain vulnerable to renewed selling.

Intraday Charts Show Bounce Losing Momentum

Shorter timeframes show why buyers are struggling to gain traction. On the 2-hour chart, ADA rebounded sharply from the $0.33 to $0.34 zone, pushing price back toward $0.39. That move briefly lifted price above the 20 EMA at $0.3759 and the 50 EMA at $0.3643, signaling short-term relief.

However, price stalled below the 100 EMA at $0.3617 and remains capped well under the 200 EMA at $0.3681. The failure to clear those levels has slowed momentum.

RSI on the 2-hour chart rolled over from near 70, slipping back toward the low 60s. That shift signals fading upside strength rather than renewed trend participation.

As long as ADA holds above $0.37, buyers retain short-term control. Losing that level would expose the recent lows again.

Exchange Flows Continue To Show Distribution

Spot flow data remains a consistent headwind. ADA has recorded persistent net exchange inflows across recent sessions, including a -$2.27 million netflow reading on Jan. 3. That pattern extends a broader trend of supply moving onto exchanges through Q4.

This behavior typically reflects positioning to sell rather than accumulate. Even during rebounds, holders continue to distribute into strength, limiting follow-through and capping rallies below resistance.

Derivatives Data Shows Leverage Building

Derivatives positioning adds another layer of tension. ADA futures open interest has risen to approximately $798 million, up more than 10% on the day. Trading volume jumped 64 percent to $1.73 billion, showing rising participation despite weak price structure.

Liquidation data shows longs absorbing most of the pressure. Over the past 24 hours, $4.27 million in long positions were wiped out compared with $3.19 million in shorts. That imbalance suggests traders attempted to front-run a recovery that has yet to materialize.

Long-to-short ratios remain skewed toward longs across major exchanges, increasing downside risk if price fails to hold support.

Outlook. Will Cardano Go Up?

Cardano remains in a corrective trend despite short-term stabilization.

• Bullish case: ADA holds above $0.37 and reclaims $0.41 on a daily close, opening room toward $0.45.
• Bearish case: A daily close below $0.37 confirms continued distribution and exposes $0.33.