SEC Deadlines, Inflows, Supply Shock

• SEC crypto ETF deadlines in October put XRP at center of investor focus.
• Institutional inflows into XRP ETF signal confidence as reserves hit record lows.
• Spot XRP ETF applications Oct 18–25 may set stage for supply shock after approval.

XRP is entering a decisive stretch as October brings the first round of SEC crypto ETF deadlines. At $2.90, XRP sits below resistance, yet XRP price momentum has been fueled by institutional inflows into XRP ETF products. 

More than $93 million moved into XRP funds last week, even as global crypto ETFs lost over $800 million. That divergence reveals how investors see XRP’s case for approval as a genuine catalyst in the weeks ahead.

Pending XRP ETF Decisions Could Define October’s Market

Six XRP spot ETF applications are under review for October. The first XRP ETF decision in October comes on October 18 with Grayscale’s filing, followed by several more deadlines running into mid-November. 

Interestingly, according to Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, the approval odds for spot crypto ETFs are now “essentially 100%.” 

He stated that the new generic listing standards make the 19b-4 filings and their review clock meaningless, leaving only the S-1 filings awaiting formal clearance from the SEC’s Division of Corporation Finance. 

Institutional Inflows Into XRP ETFs Signal Supply Shock Risk

If XRP gets the green light, the effect could be immediate. Institutional inflows into XRP ETF structures would likely expand rapidly, and with exchange reserves near multi-year lows, the setup could create a supply shock XRP event.

Thin supply combined with new institutional demand is why traders are now openly discussing whether XRP can climb toward the $20–$30 range over the medium term. 

XRP Price Analysis Shows Resistance at $3.20–$3.50 Before Breakout

Looking at the weekly chart, XRP has been trading within a rising wedge pattern, consolidating after a strong breakout earlier in 2025. At $2.90, it sits just below immediate resistance in the $3.20–$3.50 zone. 

A breakout above this level could send the token toward $5 initially, and if ETF approvals deliver sustained institutional demand, analysts project an ambitious upside range of $20–$30 in the medium term.

Notably, support rests near $2.20, aligned with the wedge’s lower trendline. A breakdown here could see XRP revisit $1.50 or even $0.90 in a bearish scenario.

On the other hand, the RSI at 55 points to moderate bullishness without signs of overbought conditions. The MACD, however, is showing convergence, hinting at potential short-term consolidation. 

Money flow (CMF) is slightly positive, reflecting steady capital inflows, while balance of power remains weak, underscoring ongoing tug-of-war between buyers and sellers.

Related: SEC Moves Closer to Approving ETF Share Classes for Mutual Funds