RIVER just gave back half its 191% pump – Is the rally already over?

River [RIVER] recorded one of its sharpest reversals in recent sessions. After posting a 191% rally between the 26th and the 28th of January, RIVER has since erased roughly half of those gains, signaling a rapid shift in momentum.

In the past 24 hours alone, the asset has dropped by 13% as liquidity continues to exit the market.

This sustained outflow places RIVER in a precarious position, raising the risk of a full retracement of gains accumulated over the past few days.

RIVER enters a critical phase

Despite the sharp pullback, the recent decline does not entirely confirm a bearish outlook. RIVER has now traded back into an ascending support range, a zone that has historically played a key role in price recoveries.

This range is defined by two support levels, both of which previously acted as catalysts for major rallies on the chart, including the most recent 191% surge. The market’s reaction to this zone suggests it remains structurally important.

The latest move into this range has already triggered a quick rebound, with the current candlestick testing the upper boundary of the support structure.

Source: TradingView

A decisive breakout above this level would indicate a potential swing toward higher price zones, possibly allowing RIVER to reclaim recent highs before the broader downturn unfolded.

However, several areas of interest remain along the projected upside path. These zones, marked by dotted levels on the chart, could slow upward progress and delay any sustained recovery.

Weakening momentum adds confluence to the slowdown

A breakout above the upper support level is far from guaranteed, as technical indicators point to weakening market strength.

The Average Directional Index, which measures trend strength, has continued to decline even as price attempts to break higher. The ADX has now fallen to 20, a level that suggests diminishing trend momentum.

In this context, the probability of a clean breakout has narrowed, increasing the likelihood that RIVER may continue to consolidate within the support range.

Source: TradingView

Momentum indicators further reinforce this cautious outlook. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator shows both the MACD line and the signal line slipping into negative territory.

This shift reflects fading bullish momentum and growing downside pressure.

If this trend persists, RIVER could continue to drift lower without generating the strong upside impulse needed to stabilize price at current levels.

Putting the decline into perspective

An analysis of the liquidation heatmap suggests the downside may remain limited before momentum begins to rebuild for a potential rebound.

Liquidation clusters often attract price action and can act as temporary support or resistance depending on their position.

In this case, clusters positioned below the current price may serve as support, meaning a controlled decline could help generate the momentum required for a renewed push higher.

Source: CoinGlass

This does not define the exact path the asset will take, but it does increase the probability of a bullish recovery scenario.

Still, RIVER is likely to encounter additional liquidation clusters along any upward move, which could introduce further resistance and slow the pace of any rebound.

Final Thoughts

• RIVER enters an ascending demand zone as market sentiment shifts.
• Technical indicators point to a potential deeper pullback within the channel.