Ripple Defends Pivot Amid Downside Pressure

• Daily regime neutral for XRP/USDT, but indicators lean mildly bearish.
• Price at 2.41 trades below key EMAs (20D 2.69; 50D 2.81; 200D 2.69).
• RSI at 34.20 and negative MACD histogram (-0.04) show weak momentum.
• Watch the daily pivot 2.41, S1 2.39 and R1 2.43 as immediate triggers.
• ATR(14) at 0.24 suggests sizing stops and targets with disciplined risk.

D1 (daily)

XRP closes at 2.41, sitting under the EMA20 at 2.69, the EMA50 at 2.81 and the EMA200 at 2.69. This alignment keeps the trend pressure to the downside despite the stated neutral regime. The RSI(14) at 34.20 is below the midpoint, indicating sellers still have the upper hand, though it is not yet oversold.

MACD shows the line at -0.13 beneath the signal at -0.09 with a histogram of -0.04, confirming momentum remains negative. Bollinger Bands (20,2) center at 2.75 with upper at 3.22 and lower at 2.29; price is in the lower half of the envelope, consistent with cautious sentiment.

ATR(14) prints 0.24, implying a typical daily swing of about 0.24. Daily pivot levels are PP 2.41, R1 2.43 and S1 2.39, placing price exactly at the balance point.

H1 (hourly)

On H1, XRP closes at 2.41 below the EMA20 at 2.43, EMA50 at 2.46 and EMA200 at 2.59, consistent with a bearish intraday regime.

RSI is 40.39, showing weak demand. MACD is flat with line -0.02, signal -0.02 and histogram 0.00, suggesting momentum is stabilizing but not yet turning higher. Bollinger mid is 2.42 with upper at 2.47 and lower at 2.38, keeping price mid-to-lower band. ATR(14) is 0.02, highlighting tight hourly ranges.

Hourly pivots indicate PP 2.41, R1 2.41 and S1 2.41 (compressed, reflecting the narrow range).

M15 (15-minute)

On M15, price at 2.41 sits near EMA20 2.42 and EMA50 2.42, below EMA200 at 2.47. RSI prints 46.75 and MACD is 0.00/0.00/0.00, indicating very balanced micro-momentum. Bollinger mid is 2.42 with upper 2.43 and lower 2.40; ATR(14) is 0.01, confirming micro-range conditions.

The intraday structure remains soft and trendless within a bearish bias on lower timeframes.

Key levels

Bullish scenario

Trigger: A sustained break above 2.43 (D1 R1) would be the first constructive sign. Follow-through targets sit at 2.69 (EMA20/EMA200) and 2.75 (BB mid), then 2.81 (EMA50).

Invalidation: A return below 2.39 (S1) weakens the setup. Risk: Consider ATR(14) at 0.24 to size stops (e.g., 0.5–1.0x ATR) and trail on higher lows. Use pivots and EMAs as execution triggers and invalidation points.

Bearish scenario

Trigger: Rejection under 2.43 followed by a loss of 2.39 opens room toward 2.29 (BB lower). A daily close near the lower band would keep pressure on.

Invalidation: Reclaiming and holding above 2.43 reduces downside momentum.

Risk: Manage entries around pivots (2.41/2.39) with ATR-based stops to avoid noise.

Neutrale (main scenario from D1)

As long as price oscillates around the daily pivot at 2.41 within the Bollinger envelope (2.29–3.22), range strategies remain valid. Buy-the-dip zones are closer to 2.39–2.29; profit-taking into 2.43–2.69 respects prevailing resistance.

Invalidation: A decisive daily close outside 2.29 or 3.22 signals potential regime change and a volatility shift.

Market cap analysis for XRP

• Total crypto market cap: 3,859,256,622,140.95 USD, 24h change -2.04%.
• BTC dominance: 57.18%.
• Sentiment (Fear & Greed): 28 (Fear).

The mix of falling total cap, high BTC dominance and a Fear reading tends to weigh on altcoins like XRP. This backdrop supports a cautious stance until breadth improves.

DeFi ecosystem

DeFi fee dynamics are mixed: Uniswap V3 (1D -20.41%, 7D 36.02%, 30D 17.00%), Fluid DEX (1D 31.13%, 7D 101.47%, 30D -4.05%), Uniswap V4 (1D 0.00%, 7D -9.76%, 30D -23.46%), Curve DEX (1D 0.10%, 7D 92.43%, 30D 17.13%), Uniswap V2 (1D 7.37%, 7D -34.91%, 30D 474.89%). Activity improvement in certain venues contrasts with softness elsewhere, a sign of selective risk-taking rather than broad risk-on.