retracement or breakout above 3 dollars?

TON continues to assert itself as one of the most dynamic ecosystems in the crypto landscape. The strong integration with Telegram, the expansion of the TVL, and the growing institutional attention make it a unique case among layer-1 blockchains.

Current Price Analysis of Toncoin (TON)

2.73 USDT: price recorded on June 23, 2025, at 12:56 PM CET – CoinGecko)

Weekly change: -4%
Monthly change: +6%

In a context still dominated by macroeconomic uncertainties — from geopolitical tensions (Ukraine, Taiwan) to the upcoming US elections — TON has shown resilience, also thanks to a steady growth in the value locked in dApps and the support of its community on Telegram.

TON: updated technical analysis

Market metrics

• Price: 2.73 USDT
• Market cap: 6.74 billion USDT
• Volume 24h: 234 million USDT
• Current TVL: 329 million USDT (source: DeFiLlama)
• POC (3 mesi): 2.55 USDT

Key indicators

• RSI (daily): 49 – neutral, room for future movements
• MACD (daily): bear crossover in stabilization phase
• ADX: 18 – weak trend, prevailing sideways scenario
• ATR: 0.14 – volatility in the average
• Funding rate: between +0.01% and +0.03% – cautious sentiment but more positive than negative

Price Dynamics and Technical Patterns

In the last three months, TON has operated in a range between 2.10 and 3.15 USDT, with the historical ATH set at 3.34 USDT (April 2025). At the beginning of May, it reached a relative high of 3.15, then started a correction on profit-taking.

The lateral phase between 2.40 and 2.80 USDT, which lasted for most of June, was interrupted on June 11 with a breakout above 2.80 — confirmed by volumes — but without weekly consolidation. The subsequent return below 2.80 set up a classic bull trap.

On the daily chart:

• A well-defined horizontal channel is highlighted between 2.40 and 3.15 USDT
• The volume is concentrated around 2.55 USDT (POC), a critical area for the short term
• In H4, potentially positive patterns (double bottom, inverted head & shoulders) can be glimpsed, not yet confirmed

Technical levels to monitor on the price of Toncoin (TON)

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Operational scenarios

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Bull scenario

A stable daily close above 2.80 USDT with volumes higher than the weekly average and an RSI >55 would trigger a new bull impulse. The targets would be 3.00 USDT (short) and 3.15 USDT (medium), with potential extension towards 3.30–3.50 USDT in case of a structural breakout.

Bear scenario

A breakdown below 2.40 USDT would invalidate the consolidation range. The next targets would be 2.20 and 2.10 USDT, with the possibility of extension towards 1.90 in case of a strongly risk-off climate.

Personal forecast

At the moment, the technical picture indicates a probable consolidation between 2.40 and 2.80 USDT, with a slight bullish bias if the support at 2.55 continues to hold. The social sentiment (growing engagement in Telegram groups and increased traffic on TON.org) supports the hypothesis of accumulation in progress.

Conclusion

The Open Network is at a crucial moment: the holding of supports and the constant growth of TVL strengthen the underlying technical structure, while the involvement of the community and the integrations with Telegram represent a unique competitive advantage among layer-1s.

In the short term, attention must remain focused on the 2.80 USDT area: a convincing close above this level could trigger a new bull trend. Otherwise, a return towards 2.10 USDT cannot be ruled out.

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Operational tips

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• Avoid impulsive operations near key levels: wait for daily confirmations
• Use stop-loss just below 2.40 or above 2.80 USDT depending on the strategy
• Closely monitor the volumes on breakout/breakdown and updates from Telegram/TON Foundation
• Consider the evolution of TVL as a fundamental signal of adoption

Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrencies are high volatility and risk instruments. Operate only after careful personal evaluation.

Sources: CoinGecko, Coinbase, DeFiLlama, TradingView, Brave Search

Prices updated on 23/06/2025 at 12:56 CET