Regulatory Clarity And Lower Inflation

The dynamics of the crypto market never cease to enthrall, with bullish rallies and bearish downturns coloring the landscape. Yet, deciphering the key factors to ignite the next Bitcoin (BTC) bull run is no easy task. However, Nansen, a leading cryptocurrency analytics firm, recently voiced its perspective on this subject.

In a report published on June 20, the firm puts forth two fundamental prerequisites for the next surge in Bitcoin’s value. It insists on the importance of clear United States regulations around cryptocurrency, and a demonstration that core inflation is on a downward trajectory.

Regulatory Clarity And Inflation: Catalysts For The Next Bull Run?

According to Nansen, US regulatory clarity could be a significant determining factor in the next bull cycle. This perspective comes amid the ongoing regulatory tensions with major crypto exchanges like Coinbase and Binance.

Despite the uncertainties, Bitcoin, the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, has held not so badly, showing a commendable rise of more than 10% over the past week.

Additionally, Nansen’s research points to the vital role of inflation. According to the crypto analytics firm, the potential for a recession appears to be receding, while persistent inflation continues to surprise.

While this situation is leading to complex impacts, with non-Asian monetary policies staying tighter for extended periods, this scenario also poses increased challenges for risk assets.

Nansen reported:

The scenario of a recession is being pushed back, and inflation is surprising by its ‘stubbornness.’ This creates non-linear effects, whereby monetary policy (outside of Asia) remains more restrictive for longer and in turn becomes an increasing headwind for risk assets.

Bitcoin Price Action: Strength Amid Uncertainty

Despite these economic and regulatory headwinds, Bitcoin’s price has exhibited resilience. At the time of the writing, BTC traded at $28,925, a more than 11% increase from its previous plummeted price below $25,000 in the past few weeks.

Notably, over the past 7 days, Bitcoin’s total market capitalization experienced a boost of 11.6%, amounting to an additional $50 billion. The market capitalization of Bitcoin presently hovers at $561 billion, an increase from last Wednesday’s $503 billion.

Bitcoin’s daily trading volume has also surged from a low of around $7 billion last week to as high as above $20 billion in the past 24 hours. Furthermore, there’s been a decrease in crypto-implied volatility, suggesting that much of the regulatory and macroeconomic bad news might already be factored into Bitcoin’s price.

According to Nansen, shallow sell-offs indicate that the market is absorbing the selling pressure well, which is a positive sign for the overall market strength.

The analytics firm noted: 

Shallow BTC sell-offs and ongoing decrease in crypto implied volatility tell us that a lot of regulatory and macro bad news are already priced in.

Featured image from Shutterstock, Chart from TradingView