RAY Technical Analysis Feb 23

While the RAY token is trading at the 0.60 dollar level, RSI at 37.39 is approaching the oversold region; although MACD’s positive histogram gives a bullish momentum signal, the overall EMA structure and Supertrend confirm the downward trend.

Trend Status and Momentum Analysis

RAY’s current price is hovering around 0.60 dollars and has recorded a 5.35% decline in the last 24 hours. The daily range was between 0.58-0.64 dollars, while volume remains at a moderate level of 936 thousand dollars. The overall trend can be defined as downward; the price continues to stay below the EMA20 level of 0.67 dollars, and the Supertrend indicator is giving a bearish signal, pointing to the 0.78 dollar resistance. From a momentum perspective, there are mixed signals: while RSI is forming a supportive base at low levels, the positive MACD histogram highlights underlying bullish potential despite the price decline. This situation suggests the possibility of a short-term recovery, but a cautious approach is necessary due to the lack of volume confirmation. In multi-timeframe (MTF) confluence, a total of 9 strong levels were identified across the 1D, 3D, and 1W charts; distributed as 2 supports/2 resistances on 1D, 1 each on 3D, and 2 supports/3 resistances on 1W. These levels are critically important, especially the 0.5971 support (score 73/100) and 0.6618 resistance (score 67/100). Volume analysis shows a decreasing trend in recent declines, which may indicate weakening selling pressure and supports base formation consistent with momentum oscillators.

RSI Indicator: Buy or Sell?

RSI Divergence Analysis

RSI (14) is currently at 37.39, which is quite close to the oversold region (below 30). As the price fell to 0.58 dollars in recent lows, RSI bottoming at this level appears to carry a potential bullish divergence signal instead of a regular bearish divergence; because while the price makes new lows, RSI tends to form higher lows. On the daily chart, RSI jumping from 35 to 37 over the last 5 candles amid price decline resembles a hidden bullish divergence, which may indicate momentum accumulation before a trend change. However, since the weekly RSI remains neutral around 45, the divergence strength is limited; a crossover above 50 on RSI should be awaited for confirmation. This divergence could trigger a test toward the 0.6196 resistance, especially if supported by volume.

Overbought/Oversold Regions

With RSI at 37.39 approaching oversold, short-term buying momentum potential is high. In the past, at similar levels (e.g., RSI 32 in January 2026), RAY has made 15% jumps; a rise to the 40-50 band would be the first bullish confirmation in the current position. Overbought above 70 is critical, but unlikely in the current downtrend. Also note the RSI and Stochastic confluence: Stochastic %K at 25 and preparing to cross above the %D line, which strengthens the RSI oversold condition.

MACD Signals and Histogram Dynamics

MACD is in bullish status; above the signal line and the histogram is expanding with positive values. As the price fell from 0.64 to 0.60, the histogram jumping from -0.005 to +0.002 clarifies the bullish divergence – momentum is shifting to buyers despite the price decline. The growing histogram bars indicate underlying acceleration; the zero line crossover has already occurred, giving a new long signal. On the 4-hour chart, the MACD line continues to stay above the signal, increasing the rotation probability to 0.6618 if it holds above the 0.5971 support. However, in the downtrend context, if the histogram narrows, short bias may activate; with volume limited at 936 thousand dollars, MACD’s strength needs to be tested. In a bearish scenario, if the histogram turns negative, the 0.5010 support is targeted.

EMA Systems and Trend Strength

Short-Term EMAs

The short-term EMA ribbon is in bearish compression; price is below EMA20 (0.67), oscillating between EMA10 and EMA5. The ribbon’s downward expansion confirms trend strength, but EMA8 flattening signals weakness. The price approaching EMA20 (currently 0.07 difference) is critical for a potential bounce; historically, this level has provided 8% support.

Medium/Long-Term EMA Supports

Medium-term EMA50 at 0.72 and EMA200 at 0.85 form resistance. Ribbon dynamics confirm the downtrend; staying below EMA100 shows long-term weakness. Trend strength measurement shows negative EMA ribbon slope, keeping momentum confluence low. There is a risk of dropping to EMA50 for support, but an EMA20 bounce can be expected with RSI/MACD support.

Bitcoin Correlation

Bitcoin is down 3.06% at 65,936 dollars with Supertrend bearish; rising dominance is creating pressure on altcoins. RAY has a 0.85 correlation with BTC; if BTC breaks the 64,183 support, RAY could decline to 0.50 levels. If BTC jumps above resistances at 65,920-68,225, relief comes for RAY, and the 0.78 Supertrend can be tested. In BTC downtrend, altcoin caution mode is active; RAY’s RSI stabilizing at 40 in the BTC pair (RAY/BTC) shows relative strength.

Momentum Summary and Expectations

In the momentum synthesis, RSI oversold and MACD positive histogram are prominent; bullish divergences suggest short-term recovery (0.6618-0.8890 target, score 46). However, EMA bearish, Supertrend down, and BTC pressure keep the downtrend intact (0.5010-0.2717 bearish target, score 22). Volume increase would strengthen confluence; monitor levels in RAY Spot Analysis and RAY Futures Analysis. Expectations: Holding above 0.5971 is bullish, below triggers bearish acceleration. Manage risk with MTF levels, await momentum oscillator confluence.