 
 
Bitcoin is ending 2025 with analysts pointing to a familiar seasonal trend that has historically fueled strong year-end rallies. Data compiled by CryptoQuant shows that while August and September tend to deliver flat or negative returns, Q4 consistently stands out as a bullish phase.
October, in particular, has averaged gains of nearly 30%, followed by November at 37.5%, a pattern traders refer to as “Uptober,” “Moonvember,” and “Bullcember.”
The bullish case goes beyond seasonality. One of the key on-chain indicators, the MVRV ratio, shows steady accumulation throughout the year before spiking in the final quarter.
From 2016 through 2025, MVRV has hovered near 1.8 for much of the year, but it typically pushes toward 2.0 by December. This reflects broader profitability for investors and growing confidence in network value, often preceding a wave of momentum buying.
Historical cycles fuel optimism
Market veterans argue that Q4 rallies are not simply a coincidence but part of a deeper cyclical structure. Bitcoin’s halving events cut new supply and have historically amplified upward pressure in the months following, often aligning with Q4 strength.
 
Analyst PlanB, promoter of the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, noted that Bitcoin’s September close at $114,065 sets the stage for another seasonal surge. According to him, Bitcoin may have passed its “point of no return” in June 2025, similar to its critical turning points in 2013, 2017, and 2020. Those periods were early stages of extended rallies, and PlanB believes the current setup isn’t that different.
October usually reignites optimism across the market after months of slow trading through the summer. That change drives momentum buying, especially when coupled with institutional portfolio adjustments and broader macro events such as Federal Reserve policy decisions or U.S. election cycles.
Of course, no outcome is inevitable. But with liquidity holding steady and on-chain metrics pointing to strengthening demand, analysts argue that the conditions for a Q4 rally look increasingly familiar.
Source: https://zycrypto.com/q4-outlook-reads-extremely-bullish-according-to-on-chain-data-expert-dives-in/