Pump.fun breaks out! Will strong demand absorb the 2B token unlock?

Key Takeaways

What’s driving Pump.fun’s breakout?

Buybacks climbed 53%, trading volume hit $336 million, and wallet activity surged, pointing to strong network participation and sustained demand.

What’s the key risk ahead?

A 2B-token unlock on 12 November may pressure prices if buyers fail to absorb new supply.

After a week-long consolidation, Pump.fun [PUMP] broke out of the consolidation range, hitting a local high of $0.45.

At press time, Pump.fun traded at $0.0044, up 17.13% in the past 24 hours. Trading volume rose 60% to $336 million, reflecting renewed bullish momentum and market demand.

Pump.fun demand soars amid token buybacks

The recent breakout aligned with an uptick in the project’s token buyback activity.

Artemis data showed buyback spending rebounded to $1.3 million, up from $1 million earlier this month.

Over the past 30 days, total buybacks rose 53%, with 335.1 million tokens repurchased. The initiative reduces circulating supply, a structural driver of price support when demand stays firm.

Source: Artemis

In addition to capital inflows from token buybacks, Pump.fun also recorded a spike in demand from the open market. 

Source: Coinalyze

Coinalyze data confirmed this. On the 10th of November, Buy Volume reached 4.41 billion PUMP, outpacing 3.8 billion in Sell Volume.

That produced a positive Buy/Sell Delta of 616.77 million, signaling strong spot accumulation.

When demand outpaces sell-side pressure and circulating supply remains tight, prices historically trend higher.

Network activity and wallet growth

Notably, in addition to significant capital flow, Pump.fun’s on-chain engagement is also rising.

In fact, according to Artemis, Launchpad Transactions have held between 1.2 million and 1.5 million. 

Source: Artemis

As such, transactions have surged 18% to 1.3 million at press time, indicating a sustained adoption rate and network usage. 

Meanwhile, Dune data showed 57,000 Recurring Wallets and 28,000 New Wallets, suggesting both retention and new user inflows — a healthy sign of organic network growth.

Source: Dune

Token unlocks: A cause of concern?

Interestingly, while Pump has experienced significant gains, it faces immediate pressure from upcoming token unlocks.

According to Dropstab, 2 billion tokens (worth roughly $9.2 million) will unlock on the 12th of November.

Token unlocks typically increase circulating supply. If buyer demand fails to absorb this influx, PUMP could face near-term selling pressure.

Can PUMP sustain its breakout?

According to AMBCrypto’s analysis, Pump.fun made a technical breakout backed by growing demand and strengthening on-chain activity.

TradingView charts showed a clear breakout from a falling channel, supported by a bullish DMI crossover.

Source: TradingView

At press time, PUMP tested the EMA50 at $0.0045. A daily close above it could open the path to $0.0054, the next resistance zone.

Failure to hold above the EMA20 may trigger a pullback toward $0.0040, especially if selling from unlocked tokens intensifies.