Pudgy Penguins (PENGU) is approaching a major inflection point as key supports stabilize, momentum indicators flip bullish, and analysts highlight growing recovery signals from cycle lows.
Pudgy Penguins PENGU continues to trade under pressure after sliding towards the $0.009–$0.01 region, but the broader structure still shows signs of stability forming at the base. The market has been reacting heavily to liquidity sweeps and rapid rotations, yet PENGU’s technicals are again approaching levels where previous cycles have reversed.
Base Structure Holds as Analyst Watches for a Long-Term Reversal
A key narrative in the community has been the major base structure around the $0.0050–$0.0060 zone. Jesse Peralta pointed out earlier that this region has historically acted as the strongest long-term support on the chart. Despite recent volatility, price remains well above that base, and the current decline looks more like a retest of mid-range support than a structural breakdown.
PENGU continues to hover above its long-term base structure, holding the same support zone that previously triggered multi-month rallies. Source: Jesse Peralta via X
This is the same support that previously triggered multi-month rallies, and if PENGU continues to trade above this range, the chart retains the potential to build a rounded reversal structure heading into 2026. Market participants are closely watching whether buyers begin stepping in with higher lows forming near the $0.009 to $0.010 band.
Bullish Signals Appear in Momentum Indicators
A different angle came from SolidTradesz, who pointed out that both RSI and AO are flashing early signs of weakening downside momentum. RSI is hovering in oversold territory while forming a potential bullish structure, a setup that often precedes strong trend reversals for mid-cap altcoins.
RSI and AO are beginning to show early bullish signals, hinting at fading sell pressure and a potential relief rally ahead. Source: SolidTradesz via X
If this momentum continues to improve, a reaction towards $0.012–$0.014 could form the first relief rally before any higher-timeframe breakout attempts.
Analyst Track Break of the Long-Term Downtrend
Ali Martinez shared a longer-term descending trendline interacting directly with price, showing that PENGU is attempting to reclaim a multi-month downtrend. This trendline has rejected the asset throughout the year, and a confirmed breakout above it would shift the market structure from distribution towards early accumulation. A reclaim of this trendline opens up higher targets towards $0.018–$0.020, where more liquidity clusters remain.
PENGU is now pressing against its multi-month downtrend, with a breakout signaling a potential shift from distribution to early accumulation. Source: Ali Martinez via X
Liquidation Heatmap Points to a High-Volatility Window
Looking at the 48-hour liquidation heatmap, large pockets of liquidity have built up overhead between $0.0105 and $0.0125, indicating that any quick upside move could trigger a cascade of liquidations. Historically, these clusters have acted as magnets, especially when the chart is sitting at extreme lows.
Meanwhile, downside liquidity thins dramatically below $0.009, reinforcing the idea that the market may prefer a bounce rather than a continuation lower unless a new wave of selling emerges.
The 48-hour heatmap shows dense upside liquidity and thin downside levels, signaling a high-volatility setup. Source: Coinglass via X
Pudgy Penguins Outlook and Scenarios
Bullish Outlook
If PENGU maintains support above the $0.009 to $0.010 area and sellers continue to weaken, the price could attempt a rotation towards the next liquidity pockets. In a constructive scenario, the chart may progress towards $0.012 to $0.014, followed by a more aggressive extension to $0.017 to $0.020.
A reclaim of the $0.015 mid-range level would be an important confirmation signal that momentum is shifting back towards the bulls. From there, the broader macro band at $0.022 to $0.028 becomes a realistic target for a sustained recovery leg.
Bearish Outlook
If support fails and PENGU loses its footing below $0.009, the market could re-test the deeper liquidity region near $0.007 to $0.008. A more severe breakdown would expose the long-standing base at $0.0050 to $0.0060. This remains the final strong structural support; losing it would invalidate the broader bullish case and open the door to prolonged consolidation at cycle lows.
For now, indicators suggest exhaustion rather than fresh breakdown momentum, but the market still requires confirmation through reclaiming short-term resistance zones.
Final Thoughts: Can PENGU Recover From Cycle Lows?
PENGU is sitting at a critical inflection point, deeply oversold, but on a historically significant support structure that has previously preceded major trend reversals. With multiple analysts pointing to weakening selling pressure, oversold indicators, and a tightening wedge pattern, the next few weeks will determine whether the token begins carving out a long-term bottom.
Pudgy Penguins’ current price is $0.009607, down 11.56% in the last 24 hours. Source: Brave New Coin
While risks remain elevated due to the steep recent decline, the overall setup suggests that PENGU may be preparing for a stabilization phase. A reclaim above $0.012 would be the strongest early sign that buyers are regaining control and that a broader recovery towards the mid-range resistances may be underway.