Bitcoin marks a new milestone towards investor optimism: 98% of its supply is currently in profit, but this figure implies not only strong hopes for the future, but also warns of the possibility of large price swings in the short term.
Bitcoin supply in profit: signals of a bull market
An increasing profitability for Bitcoin dominates the scene, with the value in profit skyrocketing from 87% to 98% between June 22 and the following Sunday, according to on-chain data. On Tuesday, about 96.7% of all Bitcoin was above the purchase price, confirming a bull momentum never seen before in the year.
However, this situation of euphoria also involves some risks. Historically, such high levels of supply in profit correspond to periods of high volatility. In fact, the potential for taking profits increases, prompting some operators to sell quickly and causing price corrections. Consequently, the market becomes more sensitive to sudden changes in sentiment.
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The realized profit/loss ratio has reached a value of 2.8, rising from 1.1 in less than a week and surpassing the alert threshold of 2.4. This represents an increase of 156.4%: a figure that, according to Glassnode analysts, reflects the high confidence of those holding Bitcoin, but also exposes the market to the risk of corrections if demand should weaken.
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Institutionals and retail: a confidence that strengthens the rally
In this scenario, there is a renewed institutional participation. Investment funds and large-scale operators are once again accumulating and supporting the market, interpreting the trend as a sign of the asset’s solidity. The “cautiously optimistic” moment indicated by analysts is fueled precisely by the presence of new accumulation strategies by both individual investors and large organizations.
Furthermore, the continuous influx of new capital generates a virtuous circle that keeps demand high and strengthens the climate of confidence. However, experts emphasize that this balance remains fragile: any signs of exhaustion in purchasing or a slowdown in momentum could trigger even sudden corrections.
Bitcoin towards $200,000: rally and new horizons
Over the course of 18 months, Bitcoin moves from the lows of the bear market in November 2022, recording a rapid jump from $15,500 to around $107,000. This 590% rally builds a solid price structure, characterized by rising highs and lows on a weekly basis. A movement that, according to many experts, lays the groundwork for a possible unprecedented bull breakout in the coming months.
Multiyear Channel: breakout expected by analysts
A well-known analyst highlights how “Bitcoin is about to break out of a multi-year channel,” with the chart showing the price approaching the upper part of this technical resistance. If this barrier were decisively overcome, the initial target could already be set at $140,000, prompting many operators to speculate a projection towards the historical threshold of $200,000 by the end of 2025.
Questa formazione non è un cuneo ascendente.
Bitcoin sta per rompere un canale pluriennale.
La prossima gamba sarà esplosiva.
Obiettivo intermedio: 140k.
Obiettivo di fine anno: 200k. pic.twitter.com/NkftUJUGeh— Stockmoney Lizards (@StockmoneyL) 30 giugno 2025
The optimistic forecasts do not stop here: some estimates extend the trajectory up to $250,000 by 2026, although these figures remain subject to the essential condition of a constant and sustained demand from bull and bear investors.
Demand as the key for the future of Bitcoin
The crucial element indicated by analysts remains the sustained demand. The Bitcoin rally, in fact, finds solid foundations only if the flow of new buyers and investor capital remain high. Therefore, if the momentum were to stop, it would be plausible to see even marked corrections after such an intense phase of profit-taking.
The most cited analysis models continue to indicate levels of great optimism. Glassnode highlights the vitality of the market and the new entries, but still advises caution: historically, a massive portion of supply in profit coincides with the approach of congestion zones and possible consolidations.
- An excess of investors in profit could stimulate sudden sales and temporary price decreases.
- The target of $200,000 remains within reach, provided that institutional participation remains high.
- Any signs of demand exhaustion should be interpreted as warning bells by operators, ready to mitigate the risk in the portfolio.
Implications for investors: how to interpret the current phase
The situation of extremely high profitability puts pressure on both retail and institutional investors. Many are considering whether to lock in profits now or continue accumulating, in the hope of further increases towards $200,000. The choice is not simple, given the risk of increasing volatility that could redefine the scenario in just a few days.
It is essential to constantly monitor both the trading volumes and the structure of the open positions in the main trading markets. A potential increase in the supply of Bitcoin intended for sale could coincide with the first signs of a slowdown in the rally.
However, the overall climate remains optimistic. More and more analysts share the vision of a near future in which Bitcoin could consolidate its position among the main global financial assets, strengthened by institutional interest and the accumulation trend by large market entities.
A look beyond the rally: risks, opportunities, and outlook for Bitcoin
The impact of the recent bull wave brings Bitcoin into the spotlight of the global economy. The record of the supply in profit testifies to a phase of great optimism, but it also reminds us that such exuberant markets must be approached with caution. Investors, both professional and retail, will have to navigate between the temptation of immediate profit and the opportunity for long-term growth.
Looking at the coming months, Bitcoin seems ready for new challenges and opportunities. Those who wish to participate will need to stay informed, monitor on-chain dynamics, and assess the strength of demand. In a context that looks at $200,000 as a possible horizon, maintaining a rational and analysis-oriented approach represents the best strategy to navigate the new era of criptovalute.
Source: https://en.cryptonomist.ch/2025/07/01/bitcoin-prospects-2025-between-record-profitability-and-forecasts-at-200000/