Presidential Election Odds Tighten on Polymarket as Voting Day Approaches

TLDR

• Trump’s election odds on Polymarket dropped from 67% to 57% between Oct 30 and Nov 4
• Harris’s odds improved from 33.1% to 43% in the same period
• Total betting volume exceeded $3 billion, with Trump leading at $1.2B versus Harris’s $772M
• Questions raised about Polymarket’s accuracy due to potential crypto-enthusiast bias
• Polymarket CEO describes platform as “crypto-powered gambling,” operates outside US

The gap between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is narrowing on cryptocurrency betting platform Polymarket, just one day before Americans head to the polls.

Recent data shows Trump’s odds of winning have decreased while Harris has gained momentum in the final days of the campaign.

Trump’s position on Polymarket has weakened notably since late October. His odds of winning dropped from 67% on October 30 to 57% as of November 4.

During the same period, Harris saw her chances improve from 33.1% to 43%, showing increased bettor confidence in her campaign.

The total volume of election-related bets on Polymarket has now exceeded $3 billion, highlighting the platform’s growing role as an alternative prediction market.

Trump continues to lead in betting volume with $1.2 billion, while Harris has attracted $772 million in bets.

Recent events may have influenced betting patterns. Trump faced technical difficulties during a rally in Milwaukee, which coincided with declining prices in Trump-themed cryptocurrency tokens. These developments appear to have impacted trader sentiment on the platform.

The accuracy of Polymarket as a prediction tool has become a topic of debate. WhaleWire analyst Jacob King suggested that the platform might show a bias toward Trump due to crypto enthusiasts favoring his perceived crypto-friendly stance on digital assets.

The New York Times raised questions about Polymarket’s neutrality, describing it as partisan. However, Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan quickly responded to these claims, emphasizing that the platform is simply a “crypto-powered gambling” venue.

Coplan further explained that Polymarket operates on a decentralized network, where users can only place bets and view trading data. He stressed the transparency of the platform’s operations and data accessibility.

The platform currently operates outside the United States due to regulatory requirements. This geographical restriction adds another layer of complexity when considering the market’s predictive value for U.S. election outcomes.

Betting volumes have shown steady growth as election day approaches. The $3 billion total represents a mix of small and large bets from traders worldwide, though exact geographical distribution of bettors is not available due to the platform’s decentralized nature.

Daily trading patterns indicate increased activity during major campaign events and news developments. The platform has recorded higher volumes during presidential debates, major policy announcements, and campaign rallies.

The shift in odds over the past week represents one of the most dynamic periods in the campaign’s betting history. Harris’s 10-percentage-point gain in just five days marks the largest swing in her favor since betting markets opened for the 2024 election.

Technical analysis of betting patterns shows that changes in odds often follow major campaign developments with a delay of 12-24 hours, suggesting that bettors take time to process and react to new information.

Polymarket’s data transparency allows for real-time tracking of betting movements. Each change in odds is recorded on the blockchain, providing a verifiable history of market sentiment throughout the campaign.

Trading volume has reached peak levels in the final days before the election, with hourly bet totals exceeding previous records. This surge in activity indicates heightened interest as election day approaches.

The platform’s final odds going into election day will be closely watched by political observers, though experts caution that betting markets should not be considered definitive predictors of election outcomes.