Prediction Markets Reach Record $12B in Volume

In Brief

• Prediction markets surpassed $12B in volume, setting a new all-time high in January.
• Opinion and Polymarket contributed over $8.7M in on-chain fees during January.
• Coinbase launched a prediction market platform for U.S. users, partnering with Kalshi.

January marked a historic moment for prediction markets, as they surpassed $12 billion in total trading volume. This new all-time high demonstrates the growing popularity of these platforms, with major players like Kalshi, Polymarket, Opinion, and Probable each reporting over $1 billion in volume. 

The surge in activity highlights a sharp increase in market participation, with traders using these platforms to predict the outcomes of real-world events. 

Alongside this growth in volume, these markets generated more than $11 million in on-chain fees during January. Opinion led the charge, contributing $6.14 million in fees, while Polymarket followed with $2.62 million.

In related news, Coinbase made its move into the prediction market space by launching a platform for U.S. users in January. This platform, built in collaboration with Kalshi, allows users to trade on outcomes of events like elections, sports, and economic indicators. 

Kalshi, recently valued at $11 billion, offers event-based contracts that function similarly to simplified derivatives. These contracts enable users to buy “yes” or “no” positions on specific outcomes, with contract prices reflecting the market’s assigned probability.

As the market for prediction platforms continues to grow, Coinbase’s involvement offers greater access to a regulated environment, potentially boosting liquidity and attracting a broader user base. 

The entry of Coinbase into this space aligns with its vision of becoming an “everything exchange” and expanding its range of offerings to include prediction markets.