Potential Impact of Telegram Airdrop Discontent on Toncoin (TON) Price: Could it Drop to $4.46 or Recover to $6.20?

• The recent downturn in Toncoin’s market activity has raised concerns regarding its future performance amidst changing user sentiments.
• Despite a significant surge in activity due to Telegram airdrops, recent events have led to a notable decrease in active addresses on the Toncoin blockchain.
• “User satisfaction has waned significantly due to the perceived low value of recent token distributions,” highlights market analyst insights.

This article explores the recent decline in Toncoin’s activity, evaluates selling pressures, and forecasts potential price movements in a shifting cryptocurrency landscape.

Toncoin’s Active Address Decline: Causes and Implications

For a considerable duration, Toncoin (TON) experienced unprecedented growth primarily driven by Telegram airdrops, which significantly boosted network activity. However, as of now, the number of active addresses plummeted to its lowest level since April, sparking inquiries into the factors contributing to this unexpected dip.

User Disappointment and Its Effects on Market Dynamics

The spikes in Toncoin’s active addresses observed between August and September were mainly fueled by various Telegram airdrop initiatives. Notably, the airdrop of over 40 billion tokens from the Telegram-native meme coin DOGS created a buzz, complemented by the launch of the mini-app game Hamster Kombat. However, the aftermath revealed user dissatisfaction, reporting a significant disillusionment regarding the monetary value of the received tokens. Consequently, this shift in user sentiment has directly correlated with decreasing engagement on the Toncoin platform.

Short-Term Holders and Market Pressure

Data from IntoTheBlock illustrates a worrying trend, indicating a reduction in the number of short-term holders post-airdrops. Initially, the months leading up to these events saw a dramatic increase in new short-term investors, which had led to heightened speculation and hopes for a price resurgence towards $7. This changing landscape, however, casts doubt on previous projections, as the current cooling of demand exacerbates the downward trend in TON’s valuation.

Current Technical Analysis: Trajectory and Predictions

As Toncoin trades at approximately $5.18, current analyses reveal that the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator has remained in negative territory since late September. The CMF serves as a crucial barometer, elucidating the balance between buying and selling pressures. A negative CMF illustrates a predominant selling tendency, suggesting that sellers outnumber buyers — a worrying sign for traders eyeing Toncoin’s stability and future price action.

Potential Upside: The Role of Upcoming Airdrops

Looking ahead, the prospect of October’s Telegram airdrops could serve as a pivotal moment for Toncoin. Should these initiatives succeed in rekindling user interest and enhancing the perceived value of distributed tokens, analysts anticipate a potential rally to $6.20, reversing the prevailing negative trend. This upcoming phase will be pivotal in determining if Toncoin can recover from its current slump and regain traction among investors.

Conclusion

In summary, the recent decline in Toncoin’s active addresses and the adverse feelings towards recent airdrop initiatives underscore significant challenges for the cryptocurrency. With selling pressures mounting and a prevailing negative CMF, the price outlook indicates a potential decline to around $4.46 unless upcoming airdrops can effectively engage users and reignite interest in Toncoin. The cryptocurrency market remains highly volatile, necessitating careful consideration for investor strategies moving forward.