Polymarket vs. Kalshi: $2B NYSE push signals ‘regime change’

Key Takeaways 

Why does ICE’s $2B investment in Polymarket matter?

It brings institutional scale and expands Polymarket’s data access to global financial players.

Can Polymarket reclaim its lead over Kalshi?

With ICE’s backing, it may recover share after falling to 32% as both compete for U.S. dominance.

Prediction market Polymarket has gone institutional after a $2 billion backing from Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). 

In a statement on X (formerly Twitter), Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan confirmed the deal, raising the firm’s valuation to $9 billion. Coplan added,

“Our partnership with ICE marks a major step in bringing prediction markets into the financial mainstream. But in addition to that, it’s a monumental step forward for DeFi.”

Source: X

The move could stamp regulatory credibility on the firm as it prepares to return to the U.S, according to some market watchers. 

Per the arrangement, ICE will plug Polymarket’s data into financial institutions globally, a move Coplan noted would allow the firm to expand. 

“There is so much to build when you combine the force of ICE’s institutional scale and credibility with Polymarket’s consumer + cultural savvy and distribution.”

Regulatory approval for Polymarket?

Prediction markets allow users to wager on outcomes across several sectors like sports, politics, and the economy. 

Given their financial incentive, they have become a more trusted data source than traditional surveys and a crucial tool of sentiment analysis and risk management for hedge funds and professionals. 

Polymarket gained massive traction and successfully predicted the 2024 U.S. presidential election, while typical surveys lagged. But it was not a smooth ride. 

In 2022, the platform was fined $1.4 million and banned in the U.S for illegally operating an unregistered derivative platform. 

But in mid-2025, it secured a regulatory pathway and acquired a derivative platform, QCX LLC. This marked the beginning of its U.S return.

The CFTC also gave a “no action” relief on various categories in sports and election results events. 

The endorsement by the reputable ICE has secured Polymarket’s much sought-after regulatory greenlight. 

Since it’s a DeFi platform, this was also a win for the sector, noted Rob Hadick, General Partner at VC Dragonfly. 

Source: X

For his part, Qureshi Haseeb, Founder of Dragonfly and an early investor in Polymarket, called the NYSE-backing a “regime change.”

Prediction markets showdown: Polymarket vs Kalshi

That being said, Polymarket has to fight it out with Kalshi to gain market share now. After the election period, Polymarket’s dominance declined by half from over 61% to about 32%. 

Source: Dune

Kalshi ate most of it and boasts a 66% market share or $956 million in weekly notional volume. It remains to be seen whether it will recover its market share after it debuts in the U.S.