- Polymarket adjusts 2025 U.S. recession probability, indicates lower risk.
- Probability fell from 66% to 39%.
- Trading volume exceeded $5 million, indicating market interest.
The probability of a U.S. recession in 2025 on Polymarket has declined to 39%, reflecting changes in economic outlook.
This decline represents significant shifts in market sentiment and implies potentially stabilizing economic conditions.
Polymarket’s Recession Odds Shift to 39%, Market Reacts
Polymarket, a leading prediction platform, reported the probability of a U.S. recession in 2025 had adjusted from a peak of 66% to the current 39%. This trend occurred despite a trading volume exceeding $5.31 million, underscoring sustained interest.
The fluctuating probability indicates shifts in economic sentiment concerning the potential recession. Market watchers suggest this might reflect expectations of economic policy adjustments and potential stability in economic conditions by 2025.
While traders and analysts interpret this change as potentially bullish, traditional institutions continue to monitor economic data closely. J.P. Morgan, for example, still projects a 45% recession probability, emphasizing different market expectations.
Historical Trends and Expert Views on Economic Stability
Did you know? In early April, when recession probability was highest on Polymarket, traders predicted a 10% chance that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates more than eight times, highlighting concerns about economic resilience.
Historically, such market-adjustments have signaled broader economic sentiments, with prediction markets often moving ahead of official data. The decline from the prior 66% peak may indicate an easing perception of immediate recession risks.
Polymarket’s data underscores ongoing uncertainty regarding the U.S. economy’s trajectory. With over $5 million in trading volume, the market’s collective assessment suggests a recalibration of recession risks amid evolving financial inputs. As a financial analyst from Block Scholes noted, “Polymarket traders were pricing in a 10% probability that the Federal Reserve would make more than 8 interest rate cuts by year-end, indicating expectations of economic weakness.”
Source: https://coincu.com/337550-polymarket-2025-recession-probability/