Polymarket Predicts 94% Chance of December Fed Rate Cut

Polymarket data indicates a 94% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s December 9-10, 2025, FOMC meeting, attracting significant trader activity.

This prediction highlights potential monetary policy shifts, swaying market sentiments and driving a $260 million trading volume, as cryptocurrency traders position for expected rate cuts.

94% Fed Rate Cut Likelihood Driven by Polymarket Activity

The Polymarket platform has reported a 94% probability for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December 2025. With a trading volume reaching ‘formatNumber(260000000, 2)‘, users are actively speculating on various outcomes. Jerome Powell, the Chair of the Federal Reserve, is expected to guide this decision at the December meeting, supported by a strong market response on the prediction platform.

Market reactions have been noteworthy, with Polymarket’s community largely favoring a rate cut scenario. With only 7% anticipating no change and 1% speculating on a larger cut, the consensus points toward expected monetary easing. Major financial analysts have yet to release statements directly regarding these odds, but the dashboard’s data serves as a gauge for crypto market sentiment.

“Current pricing reflects a 94% probability of a 25 bps rate cut in December, with 7% for no change, and 1% for a 50+ bps cut.” – Polymarket Dashboard

Historical Context and Crypto Market Impact

Did you know? The last Federal Reserve cut occurred in December 2024, setting a precedence for traders on platforms like Polymarket to speculate on rate decisions with elevated probabilities.

According to CoinMarketCap, USDC is currently priced at $1.00 with a market cap of ‘formatNumber(78155852480, 2)’. The stablecoin’s 24-hour trading volume stands at ‘formatNumber(12573750935, 2)’, reflecting an 11.33% change. Although the price has seen minimal fluctuations, the increased trade indicates heightened interest in stablecoins amid Fed decisions.

The Coincu research team highlights potential shifts in market liquidity and interest rates that could impact both traditional finance and crypto markets. Expected rate cuts could lead to lower discount rates, making capital more accessible and potentially stabilizing volatile assets. Historically, these movements have correlated with increased volatility in crypto markets, a trend this decision might continue.