Polymarket Predicts 59% Chance of U.S. Recession by 2025 – Coincu

Polymarket’s latest data indicates a 59% probability that the U.S. economy will enter a recession by 2025, with trading volume on this prediction surpassing $4.27 million as of May 3, 2025.

This significant prediction affects cryptocurrency market dynamics, especially reflecting on Bitcoin, which has dropped by over 11% in two months amid heightened macroeconomic concerns.

Polymarket’s 59% Recession Forecast Stirs Market Reactions

The decentralized prediction platform, Polymarket, recently reported a notable change in the predicted probability of a U.S. recession by 2025, now standing at 59%. This forecast aligns with growing economic concerns reflected in financial markets.

With the recession probability now at 59%, trading volume on this prediction has exceeded the $4.27 million mark. Such high engagement indicates increased investor focus on macroeconomic risks, especially following recent policy adjustments.

Market participants and analysts have reacted strongly, with Bitcoin’s price dropping significantly. Notably, prominent figures like Shayne Coplan, founder of Polymarket, have yet to issue public comments, although past statements emphasize the value of transparent information marketplaces. “The value of open information marketplaces is crucial during times of economic uncertainty.”

Bitcoin Price Drops 11% Amid Economic Uncertainty

Did you know? Polymarket’s prediction for a potential U.S. recession by 2025 echoes previous market indicators such as its accurate forecast during the 2020 elections, positioning the platform as a significant barometer for economic sentiment.

As of May 3, 2025, Bitcoin trades at $96,056.15 with a market cap of approximately $1.91 trillion, according to CoinMarketCap. The cryptocurrency has gained 14.42% in 60 days, even as its 24-hour trading volume falls by 21.67% to $24.10 billion.

Coincu analysis suggests that rising recession fears could shift investor sentiment further away from riskier crypto assets. Regulatory responses to prediction markets continue to evolve, but current trends highlight a growing reliance on decentralized platforms for economic forecasting.