Polymarket gives Solana 7% chance of a new ATH before 2026

Key Takeaways

How bearish has market sentiment turned on Solana?

Prediction market Polymarket now gives SOL only a 7% chance of hitting a new all-time high before 2026, down from 60% probability in September.

What would Solana need to rally 92% in six weeks?

For SOL to defy the 7% odds and reach its $295 all-time high by year-end, it would need sustained ETF inflows returning to October levels, and a broader crypto market rally.

Market sentiment around Solana has collapsed despite record institutional inflows. 

Prediction platform Polymarket now assigns a 7% probability that SOL will reach a new all-time high before 2026, a dramatic drop from the 60% odds traders assigned in September during the peak of ETF euphoria.

Source: Polymarket

The stark reversal comes as Solana crashed 36% from its October peak of $240 to current levels around $153, despite Solana ETFs pulling in $350 million in cumulative inflows since their October 28 launch. 

The Bitwise Solana Staking ETF (BSOL) led the charge with strong initial demand, but price action tells a different story.

CryptoQuant’s futures volume analysis reveals what went wrong. Massive “overheating” signals appeared at the $200 price level in October, indicating excessive leverage had built up in the market. 

When those overleveraged positions hit liquidation levels, they triggered a cascading selloff that institutional ETF inflows couldn’t offset.

Solana futures data confirms sentiment shift

CryptoQuant’s futures volume bubble map tells the story. 

Massive red “overheating” bubbles appeared at $200 throughout October, indicating excessive leverage. The bubble sizes show historically high futures volume at elevated prices.

Source: CryptoQuant

When overleveraged positions hit liquidation levels, they triggered a cascading selloff that ETF inflows couldn’t offset. 

Current data shows significantly smaller bubbles at lower prices—speculative fervor has evaporated. Volume dried up alongside the price decline.

What would it take for SOL to hit ATH?

The daily price chart reveals the technical challenges facing any recovery attempt. 

Solana trades at $153, having formed a clear downtrend structure with lower highs and lower lows since the October peak. 

The Stochastic RSI sits at 42.45—neutral territory that shows neither oversold conditions nor emerging buying pressure.

For bulls to reverse this trend, SOL needs to reclaim the $190-200 resistance zone where it previously found support. 

Source: TradingView

A sustained break above $200 would invalidate the current downtrend and open the path toward retesting the $240 local high.

From there, a 92% rally to the $295 all-time high requires clearing multiple resistance levels accumulated during the October distribution phase.

The chart shows failed attempts to hold higher prices throughout the fall, leaving overhead supply that will resist any rally attempt.

With the Stochastic RSI showing no momentum and six weeks remaining in 2025, technical structure supports the bearish 7% Polymarket odds.