Polkadot’s recovery hits range-low: Can it push forward?

Posted: September 16, 2023

Disclaimer: The information presented does not constitute financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice and is solely the writer’s opinion.

• DOT was up 7% from its recent dip of $3.9 but hit a range-low ($4.2).
• Buyers had market leverage at press time, but the Open Interest rate fluctuated. 

Polkadot [DOT] swing traders who captured the trend change around 12 September were up 5% at press time. The native parachain altcoin traded at $4.2, up from the recent dip of $3.9, but hit a range-low that could tempt sellers to seek re-entry. 

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At press time, Bitcoin [BTC] was above its range-low but hadn’t crossed the mid-range of $27k ahead of the FOMC Meeting on 20 September. With a Fed rate pause on the cards, BTC could reclaim the $27k and attempt to target the range-high of $28.3k. 

Key obstacles for Polkadot

Source: DOT/USDT on TradingView

The recent dip saw bulls re-group at $3.9, fronting an impressive recovery from 12 September. However, the price action hit the range-low of $4.2 at press time. 

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hit the overbought zone, indicating strong buying pressure in the past four days. But the foray into the overbought zone meant a potential reversal couldn’t be overruled. 

On the other hand, the CMF improved too but failed to cross the zero mark at press time. It demonstrated that capital inflows improved, but weren’t substantial enough. 

So, DOT could falter at the range-low of $4.2 in the next couple of hours and could head lower, especially if BTC face rejection at $27k mid-range. The immediate support is the $4.1 level. 

But the solid recovery extension beyond $27k by BTC could tip DOT to reclaim the range-low of $4.2 convincingly. If so, the next hurdle for DOT will be the mid-range that aligns with the daily bearish order block (OB) of $4.2 – $4.3 (red).   

Polkadot buyers had market leverage, but…

Source: Coinalyze

Spot market buyers have had market leverage since 12 September, as shown by the rising CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta). 

How much are 1,10,100 DOTs worth today? 

In addition, the Open Interest rates surged from 10 September, denoting demand for DOT improved in the derivatives market. But the metric wavered in the last three days, which could tip the scale in favor of sellers. 

A negative Accumulative Swing Index (ASI), blue line, could signal a confirmed trend change and reversal at the range-low of $4.2. So, if the metric breaks its trendline by easing to -4, it could show increasing sellers’ vantage.