POL: Rise or Fall? January 16, 2026 Scenario Analysis

POL is standing at a critical crossroads at the $0.14 level. While the downtrend continues with a 7.21% drop in the last 24 hours, RSI at 33.67 is approaching the oversold region. Bearish MACD and positioning below EMA20 are increasing the pressure, but nearby supports ($0.1322-$0.1366) and resistances ($0.1427-$0.1531) make both scenarios possible. This analysis addresses both possibilities with equal depth to ensure traders are prepared for both directions – not a prediction, but an analysis tool.

Current Market Situation

POL’s current price is at the $0.14 level, trading in the $0.14-$0.15 range with a 7.21% loss in the last 24 hours. Volume is at a moderate $94.62M, but the downtrend dominates. Technical indicators are predominantly bearish: RSI 33.67 (may signal oversold), MACD confirms selling pressure with a negative histogram, price below EMA20 ($0.15), Supertrend giving bearish signal, $0.16 resistance strong.

Critical levels: Supports $0.1322 (strength score 69/100) and $0.1366 (61/100); resistances $0.1427 (74/100) and $0.1531 (66/100). Multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis shows 14 strong levels on 1D/3D/1W: 2 supports/4 resistances on 1D, 1 support/4 resistances on 3D, 3 supports/1 resistance on 1W – overall resistance dominance. No news flow, so technical levels will be decisive. Traders should form their own strategies by calculating risk/reward ratios (from current $0.14, ~1.2 R/R for bull target $0.1660, ~1.6 R/R for bear $0.1174).

Scenario 1: Bullish Scenario

How Does This Scenario Unfold?

For the bullish scenario, a clear break above the $0.1427 resistance (74/100 score) is first required. A close above this level could reverse short-term momentum. Watch for: volume increase (50%+ spike), bullish divergence on RSI (higher RSI at lower low), MACD histogram approaching zero, and EMA20 ($0.15) crossover. With Supertrend turning bullish, a move to $0.1531 (66/100) could follow. MTF 1W supports (holding around $0.1322) will provide backing. Oversold RSI supports a potential rebound, and a local rally is possible within the overall downtrend – for example, BTC stabilization could be a trigger. Invalidation criterion: Break below $0.1366 support invalidates the scenario.

Target Levels

First target $0.1531 (after initial resistance break), then $0.1660 (bull target with 45 score). More aggressively, it could extend to $0.18 if MTF resistances are surpassed. Wait for volume confirmation at each step; R/R improves after $0.1427 break. Traders can monitor current charts on the POL Spot Analysis page.

Scenario 2: Bearish Scenario

Risk Factors

The bearish scenario is triggered by a break below the $0.1366 support (61/100) – this accelerates the current downtrend. Additional triggers: new lows on MACD, RSI dropping below 30 without divergence, selling spike in volume, and distancing from EMA20. If Supertrend remains bearish, pressure increases to $0.1322 (69/100). MTF resistance abundance (especially 8 resistances on 3D/1D) limits rallies, while overall market risk-off sentiment (e.g., BTC drop) acts as a catalyst. Invalidation criterion: Strong close at $0.1427 resistance disproves the bear scenario. These factors can reinforce momentum selling and create a chain reaction.

Protection Levels

First protection $0.1322 (strong support), if broken, bear target $0.1174 (25 score). Deeper MTF 1W supports come into play. Traders can manage leveraged risks with POL Futures Analysis. R/R is advantageous in downside, but volatility is high – stop-losses should be positioned above $0.1427.

Which Scenario to Watch?

Key triggers: $0.1427 (bull breakout), $0.1366 (bear breakdown). Daily closes are decisive – volume >$100M spike strengthens bull, low-volume break strengthens bear. Monitor RSI divergence, MACD cross, and Supertrend flip. MTF alignment is essential: 1D break must be confirmed by 3D/1W. With high volatility, early invalidation in both scenarios ($0.1366 below for bull cancel, above $0.1427 for bear cancel) is critical. Traders should test levels according to their own risk tolerance.

Conclusion and Monitoring Notes

POL’s balance at $0.14 offers traders preparation opportunities in both directions. Watch resistance breaks for upside, support tests for downside. Daily volume, indicator alignment, and MTF levels are forefront. This analysis is for educational purposes; do your own research, follow the POL spot and futures pages. Markets are dynamic, update continuously.