 
 
Binance’s shrinking XRP supply has caught traders’ attention as XRP approaches the launch of U.S. spot ETFs. On‐chain data show Binance’s XRP reserves are now near multi‐month lows, signaling tight liquidity.
CryptoQuant data indicate Binance held about 2.785 billion XRP on Nov 12, 2025, down from 2.795 billion the day before.
In October, Binance’s XRP balance dipped to roughly 2.74 billion tokens – the lowest level in almost a year. At the same time, total XRP reserves across exchanges have been falling by roughly 3.4% since early October.
This decline coincides with growing institutional demand: JPMorgan analysts forecast $4–8 billion could flow into XRP ETFs in their first year.
The combination of vanishing exchange supply and looming ETF demand has many observers calling it a “perfect storm” for XRP.
 
Binance’s Shrinking XRP Supply
As Binance sheds XRP, trading liquidity is tightening. CryptoQuant’s charts (above) show a steady drawdown in Binance’s XRP reserves over 2025 – from over 3.0 billion XRP early in the year to under 2.8 billion today.
When large holders withdraw tokens to cold storage, fewer coins remain available for trading. In practical terms, this means even modest new buying could have an outsized impact on price.
A 3.4% drop in XRP exchange balances since October is a historically bullish pattern tied to long‐term accumulation. In other words, XRP is positioning more like a scarce asset as supply on Binance thins out.
Institutional Demand and ETF Inflows
With Binance’s exchange float shrinking, anticipated ETF flows add fuel to the rally thesis. JPMorgan projects $4.3–8.4 billion of net inflows into new XRP spot ETFs in year one.
JPMorgan analysts have estimated that $4 to $8 billion could flow into the upcoming XRP Spot ETFs once they launch.
This level of capital would vastly exceed XRP’s usual trading flows. The prospect of huge ETF demand has already prompted some large investors to accumulate XRP off‐exchange, further tightening supply.
As one analyst observed, the combination of rising institutional interest and limited exchange reserves “could create a ‘perfect storm’ for a price breakout” in XRP.
Even retail interest is likely to follow: approvals of spot XRP ETFs remain pending, but industry forecasts are highly confident they will launch soon.
Scarcity Meets Price Catalyst
Analysts caution that market timing is never certain, but current metrics suggest a potential supply squeeze.
Analysts warn that an impending supply crisis could spark a major rally in the XRP price. The thinning of Binance’s XRP stash means buyers may face far less resistance than usual.
In practice, a few large purchase orders could lift prices more sharply than in a balanced market. Bloomberg and Reuters analysts compare this to how gold’s shrinking circulating supply underpinned past rallies.
XRP’s on‐chain features and banking partnerships reinforce its use case, but for now, the focus is on market mechanics: constrained supply meets eager demand.
Binance is moving millions of XRP off exchange, and major banks see institutional demand looming. If an XRP ETF debuts on schedule, the resulting buying wave could collide with the tight Binance float.
In that scenario, even a normal volume of buying might send XRP sharply higher. As one crypto strategist puts it, the shrinking supply on Binance has become a key upside risk for XRP, drawing renewed bullish interest in the cryptocurrency.