ONDO Technical Analysis Jan 28

The current market structure maintains the downtrend; LH/LL pattern dominates, bearish bias continues unless $0.3422 resistance is broken.

Market Structure Overview

ONDO is trading at $0.34 as of January 28, 2026, and the overall market structure indicates a clear downtrend. The price has recently formed lower highs (LH) and lower lows (LL), reinforcing the bearish structure. This is a classic downtrend indicator: each new high is lower than the previous (LH), each new low is lower than the previous (LL). Multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis identified a total of 8 strong levels across 1D, 3D, and 1W charts; with 1 support/2 resistances on 1D, 1 support/1 resistance on 3D, and 1 support/3 resistances on 1W, weighted toward resistances. Remaining under EMA20 ($0.36) gives a short-term bearish signal, Supertrend is bearish, and $0.40 resistance is strong. RSI at 39.38 is approaching oversold, but momentum is weak, with MACD’s negative histogram confirming selling pressure. The 24-hour +2.14% rise ($0.32-$0.34 range) is just a local recovery; a close above $0.3422 is required for structural change. Market structure analysis determines if the trend continues or reverses via HH/HL or LH/LL patterns. Here, LH/LL dominates, so the bearish structure remains intact.

Trend Analysis: Uptrend or Downtrend?

Uptrend Signals

For an uptrend, higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL) are required; meaning each new high higher than the previous, each new low higher than the previous. ONDO lacks such a structure recently: Price has been making LHs since the $0.6043 swing high ($0.3422 latest LH). Potential HL formation is limited to holding above $0.3166 support, but breaking the $0.32 local low increases LL risk. Bullish continuation target $0.4944 (score 30/100) is distant; a close above EMA20 ($0.36+) would be the first HH signal, but it hasn’t happened yet. Slight RSI recovery (above 39) could hint at momentum change, but CHoCH (Change of Character) requires $0.3422 BOS.

Downtrend Risk

The downtrend is clear with LH/LL: Latest swing high $0.3422 (lower than previous $0.6043), swing low $0.3166 (lower than previous lows). This pattern shows buyer weakness and seller dominance. MACD bearish crossover and negative histogram confirm downward momentum. On 1W timeframe, 3 resistances combined with BTC dominance effect on altcoins heighten LL risk. A break below $0.3166 brings a new LL and $0.1900 bearish target (score 22/100). For trend reversal, await bullish BOS; otherwise, LH/LL continues.

Structure Break (BOS) Levels

Break of Structure (BOS) confirms trend change: Bullish BOS requires strong close above latest LH ($0.3422) (forming HH), bearish BOS requires close below latest LL ($0.3166) (new LL). $0.3422 (score 70/100) is critical resistance; breaking it targets $0.40 Supertrend and $0.4944, causing structural shift. Conversely, breaking $0.3166 support (score 77/100) leads to bearish BOS drop below $0.32, then $0.1900. MTF shows limited 1D/3D supports, 1W resistances dominate. CHoCH definition: Character changes when price breaks structure and starts new HH/HL. Currently, bearish BOS risk is higher; expect rejection around $0.34.

Swing Points and Their Importance

Recent Swing Highs

Latest swing high $0.3422 (70/100 score), just above current price; acting as LH resistance. If unbroken, LH pattern continues, sellers enter. Upper level $0.6043 (61/100) is invalidation for long-term bearish target. Swing highs test trend strength: LHs confirm downside. $0.3422 rejection offers local short opportunity.

Recent Swing Lows

Latest swing low $0.3166 (77/100 score), strong support; holding as HL offers recovery chance. Breaking $0.32 local low creates new LL, breaking structure. Swing lows show buyer strength: LLs reinforce bearish bias. MTF supports limited, break below $0.3166 is critical BOS.

Bitcoin Correlation

BTC at $89,398 in downtrend (+1.10% 24h), Supertrend bearish. Main supports $88,323 / $86,556 / $84,681; resistances $90,049 / $91,904 / $94,440. While BTC is in LL structure, altcoins (including ONDO) remain under pressure, correlation high. BTC break of $88,323 accelerates ONDO $0.3166 test, dominance rise crushes alts. BTC $90,049 BOS creates $0.3422 opportunity for ONDO. BTC dominance caution: Altcoin rally requires BTC stabilization. Monitor BTC levels for ONDO Spot Analysis and ONDO Futures Analysis.

Structural Outlook and Expectations

ONDO structure is bearish: LH/LL pattern intact, $0.3422 resistance unbroken while $0.3166 support is key. Bullish invalidation: $0.3422 BOS + above EMA20; bearish: $0.3166 break. MTF resistance weight and BTC downtrend dominate short-term downside bias. Educational note: Read market structure with HH/HL (bull) vs LH/LL (bear), confirm with BOS. Volatility high, risk management essential. Lack of news dominates structure.