October 2025 is the worst ‘Uptober’ in a decade – What happened?

Key Takeaways

What triggered the sharp downturn in crypto markets during October’s “Uptober” rally? 

The October 10 crash wiped out $19 billion in leveraged positions, derailing bullish momentum.

What is the outlook for Bitcoin heading into November? 

BTC is expected to stay range-bound early in the month, with a potential rally to $120,000 mid-November.

October—typically dubbed “Uptober”—has historically marked a period of major gains across Bitcoin [BTC] and several altcoins.

The month began on a bullish note, with total crypto market capitalization briefly reaching an all-time high of $4.27 trillion. However, that momentum quickly faded.

Here’s what triggered the downturn.

10/10 sparked fear across markets

The sell-off began on what is now called the 10/10 crash, leading to one of the largest liquidation events in crypto history.

Roughly $19 billion in leveraged positions were wiped out on the 10th of October, forcing over 1.6 million traders out of the market.

The spot market suffered even more. Data from TradingView showed that over $888 billion was erased from total market capitalization.

In an email to AMBCrypto, Shawn Young, MEXC’s Chief Analyst, said:

“The October 10 crash that saw over $19 billion leveraged positions liquidated also dealt a further blow to the bullish momentum that was building in the market. By the time the market stabilized, the ‘Uptober’ rally had already been structurally derailed.”

So far, only $362 billion has returned, indicating that investors remain cautious—with total outflows standing at $526 billion.

Source: DeFiLama

Investors now prefer to sit on the sidelines rather than go all in, reflected in the record-high stablecoin supply of $308.77 billion as of the 22nd of October.

This underscores widespread uncertainty and a wait-and-see approach among market participants.

Economic strain pushes investors toward safety

Global economic uncertainty has also weighed heavily on the crypto market.

The initial catalyst emerged from rising tensions between the U.S. and China over export controls, which led Washington to impose a 100% tariff on all Chinese imports.

The announcement, on the 10th of October 2025 contributed significantly to the market-wide decline.

Young explained that even the late-month 25-basis-point rate cut failed to inspire risk appetite.

“The 25-basis-point cut announced in late October was also overshadowed by Powell’s remarks that further rate cuts were ‘far from guaranteed’ despite announcing the end of the quantitative tightening era.”

Such developments typically drive investors toward traditional safe-haven assets while risk assets like crypto suffer.

This shift was evident in gold’s performance—its price surged 14.72% in October to an all-time high of $4,381, marking its strongest monthly rally in a decade.

Putting “Uptober” into perspective

Between 2021 and 2025, October has generally been bullish for the crypto market.

In 2021, total market capitalization rose 56%, reaching $3.01 trillion, its yearly peak. In 2023, a similar uptrend produced a 167.9% gain, pushing capitalization to $2.72 trillion.

October 2024 followed the same pattern, with market value rising 84.73% to $3.83 trillion.

The exception was 2022, when capitalization fell 24.9%—the weakest October in five years.

While 2025 has seen a 24.19% drop so far, the market still recorded a new all-time high earlier in the month, showing that some underlying bullish momentum persists.

Source: TradingView

Institutional activity has also remained strong. Net inflows indicate that major investors continue to accumulate Bitcoin, according to SoSovalue.

So far this month, U.S. investors have spent $3.61 billion on BTC, the fifth-largest purchase volume in ten months. This suggests continued optimism and the potential setup for a November rebound.

Looking ahead, Young expects early November to remain range-bound.

“BTC is expected to trade mostly in the $110,000 – $115,000 range, with possible downward spikes towards $100,000 – $103,000 if geopolitical tensions escalate, U.S data surprises to the downside, or further macro headwinds emerge.”

Starting in mid-November, Bitcoin is expected to reach $120,000 as traders begin pricing in the impact of the end of the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening era.