new highs and altseason ahead

The past week has seen the main financial markets confirm a strong risk orientation, with investors abandoning defensive assets to focus on technology stocks, emerging markets, and especially on the cryptocurrency market. 

The S&P 500 index reached new records, closing at 6,358.91 points with a rise of 0.8% on July 23, while the Nasdaq and the Dow Jones also recorded significant gains. This bull rally was fueled by solid economic data, corporate earnings exceeding expectations (83% of S&P 500 companies beat estimates), a more relaxed climate on tariffs between the United States and Japan, and the persistent enthusiasm towards artificial intelligence.

On the cryptocurrency front, Bitcoin remained stable just below its all-time highs, oscillating in the range between 116,000 and 119,000 dollars. Despite a consolidation phase after the recent rally, institutional investors’ attention has shifted to Ethereum, with ETH ETFs recording weekly net inflows of about 650 million dollars, compared to bitcoin outflows of 126 million. July thus confirms itself as a record month for inflows into ETH ETFs, which have reached 3.9 billion dollars.

Meme Stocks and volatility: the return of retail speculation

According to the latest Binance Research study, a noteworthy phenomenon has been the resurgence of meme stocks, stocks driven by retail investor speculation. Companies like Kohl’s, Krispy Kreme, GoPro, Beyond Meat, and Opendoor have experienced strong intraday swings: Kohl’s gained nearly 90% in a single session, while GoPro jumped 49%. This trend indicates a new wave of FOMO (fear of missing out) among small investors, who are looking to ride the market momentum.

In parallel, the VIX index – barometer of Wall Street volatility – has decreased by 10% to its lowest since February, reflecting a widespread climate of optimism among the operators.

Altcoin and BNB: Record Performance and New Highs

Among the altcoins, the performance of BNB stands out, which on July 23 reached a new all-time high at 807 dollars. BNB distinguishes itself not only for the price but also for the risk-return profile: in the last five years, it has recorded a Sharpe ratio of 2.5, offering 2.50 dollars of return for every dollar of risk taken, with lower volatility compared to other major cryptocurrencies. This data highlights the solidity of BNB as a long-term asset, capable of outperforming both traditional indices and higher capitalization cryptocurrencies.

Interest in altcoins seems set to grow, driven by strong inflows into Ethereum ETFs, the announcement of new crypto treasuries, and the achievement of new highs by assets like BNB. Analysts are already talking about a possible start of “altseason,” a market phase in which altcoins outperform bitcoin in terms of returns.

Intermarket Analysis: Correlations and Global Dynamics

On the correlation front, the link between Bitcoin and Ethereum remains strong, with a two-month correlation coefficient of 0.71. This figure reflects how the two main digital assets continue to move in sync, albeit with different inflow dynamics at the institutional level.

In the meantime, the dollar lost ground, closing the week down by 0.87%, due to the approaching deadline of August 1st set by President Trump for the introduction of new tariffs against trade partners that do not reach an agreement with the United States. Gold fluctuated between 3,436 and 3,360 dollars per ounce, without significant changes, while the price of oil remained stable.

Macro perspectives: resilient US economy, steady rates

The macroeconomic data confirm the strength of the U.S. economy. New unemployment benefit claims have fallen to a three-month low (217,000), indicating a robust labor market. The flash PMI index for July reached 54.6, the highest level of 2025, driven by the services sector, but also highlighted an acceleration in prices due to the new tariffs on imports.

Despite inflationary pressures, the Federal Reserve is expected to keep the benchmark rate unchanged between 4.25% and 4.50% at the next meeting, resisting the White House’s requests to cut rates. The European Central Bank has also left the deposit rate at 2%, emphasizing that the Eurozone economy is in a “good position,” although U.S. trade threats pose a risk to the Old Continent.

In Japan, Tokyo’s inflation remains at 2.9%, above the target, keeping the pressure high on the Bank of Japan ahead of the end-of-month meeting.

Upcoming events: key data and monetary policy decisions

The upcoming week will be crucial for the markets, with a series of macroeconomic and monetary policy events. In the United States, the preliminary estimate of the second quarter GDP (July 30), the report on new jobs in July (August 1), the data on Core PCE inflation (July 31), and the ISM manufacturing index (August 1) are expected. In Europe, the preliminary data on the second quarter GDP will be published on July 30, while the first estimate of July inflation will arrive on August 1.

On the central banks front, meetings of the Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, and Bank of Canada are expected, with operators’ expectations focusing on a confirmation of the current interest rate levels.

Commercial Tensions and Crypto Regulation: Eyes on Trump and SEC

The trade tensions between the United States and the European Union could intensify as the August 1 deadline approaches, when the Trump administration threatens to impose new tariffs of up to 30% on European imports in the absence of an agreement. Investors are closely monitoring possible last-minute compromises that could avoid a damaging escalation for global supply chains.

In the crypto world, regulation remains a hot topic. The US SEC is evaluating new requests for cryptocurrency ETFs. After temporarily approving and then suspending the conversion into ETF of the Grayscale Digital Large Cap Fund, the focus is now on requests for ETFs linked to Solana, with the SEC asking issuers to update their documentation by July 31. These developments could have a significant impact on market flows and the institutional perception of cryptocurrencies.

Conclusions: Optimism and New Opportunities between Risks and Innovation

The general outlook of global markets and cryptocurrencies remains optimistic, with new highs for stock indices and digital assets, record inflows into Ethereum ETFs and a growing focus on altcoin. However, risks related to trade tensions and monetary policy decisions remain, which will continue to influence investor sentiment in the coming weeks. In this scenario, the ability to quickly adapt to changes and seize new opportunities offered by financial innovation will be crucial for those operating in the markets.