In summary
- Neutral D1 regime for SOL Analysis: price at 190.29 USDT sits below EMA20/50 but above EMA200, signaling a mixed bias.
- RSI 41.39 and negative MACD on D1 → downside momentum persists, yet not oversold; buyers remain hesitant.
- Bollinger lower band near 179.32 USDT; price trades in the lower zone → mean reversion attempts could appear but fragile.
- Pivot PP at 191.69 USDT frames the day; R1 197.02 and S1 184.97 → clear support and resistance map.
- ATR14 at 17.89 USDT on D1 → volatility is elevated; risk control should adapt to swings.
Multi-timeframe SOL Analysis
D1 — SOL Analysis
On the daily chart, SOL trades at 190.29 USDT, below the EMA20 208.53 and EMA50 209.55, but still above the EMA200 187.13. This layout suggests medium-term sellers in control while the broader uptrend base tries to hold. RSI sits at 41.39, a sub-50 reading that keeps a bearish tilt without being oversold. MACD line (-6.43) remains below the signal (-3.43) with a negative histogram (-3.00), confirming waning momentum. Price hovers in the lower Bollinger zone (mid 212.12; low 179.32), implying pressure near support where mean-reversion bounces can occur. ATR14 is 17.89 USDT, showing wider ranges; position sizing should respect this backdrop. Pivot map: PP 191.69, R1 197.02, S1 184.97 — if price stays under PP, intraday tone may remain soft. Approfondimenti tecnici recenti e il contesto degli ETF sono approfonditi anche in questa analisi su Solana e gli ETF.
H1 — SOL Analysis
Intraday, price at 190.35 USDT sits below the EMA20 194.98, EMA50 196.80, and EMA200 202.88, keeping the H1 regime bearish. RSI 35.35 shows sellers pressing, though not extremely stretched. MACD line (-1.21) is just above its signal (-1.31) with a tiny positive histogram (0.10) — momentum may be stabilizing, but confirmation is lacking. Bollinger bands (mid 194.08; low 190.86) show price leaning on the lower side, hinting at compression near support. ATR14 is 3.34 USDT, indicating brisk but tradable intraday volatility. H1 pivot levels: PP 191.47, R1 193.20, S1 188.63 — reclaiming PP would ease pressure.
M15 — SOL Analysis
On the micro-structure, SOL at 190.38 USDT trades below EMA20 194.37, EMA50 194.71, and EMA200 196.94 — a short-term downtrend. RSI 35.04 keeps a bearish lean. MACD line (-0.62) below signal (0.06) with a negative histogram (-0.68) suggests fading attempts to rebound. Bollinger set (mid 195.29; low 191.39) shows price pinned near lower bands — momentum feels fragile. ATR14 is 2.09 USDT, so quick wicks are possible. M15 pivot: PP 190.65, R1 191.55, S1 189.48 — micro bounces may stall near PP.
Across timeframes, D1 is **neutral** while H1 and M15 lean **bearish**. Overall SOL Analysis: a cautious structure where sellers have the initiative intraday, but the daily EMA200 still offers a nearby line of defense. Approfondimenti su trend recenti di Solana anche qui.
Key levels for SOL Analysis
| Level | Type | Bias/Note |
|---|---|---|
| 209.55 USDT | EMA50 (D1) | Major resistance; reclaim would aid bulls |
| 208.53 USDT | EMA20 (D1) | Near-term resistance; momentum gauge |
| 191.69 USDT | Pivot PP (D1) | Intraday bias line; above = relief |
| 197.02 USDT | Pivot R1 (D1) | Breakout trigger toward EMA20 |
| 184.97 USDT | Pivot S1 (D1) | Breakdown trigger toward lower band |
| 187.13 USDT | EMA200 (D1) | Key support; trend backbone |
| 212.12 USDT | Bollinger mid (D1) | Mean-reversion target |
| 179.32 USDT | Bollinger low (D1) | Downside magnet if S1 fails |
| 193.20 USDT | Pivot R1 (H1) | Intraday cap; reclaim eases pressure |
| 188.63 USDT | Pivot S1 (H1) | Intraday floor before D1 S1 |
| 191.55 USDT | Pivot R1 (M15) | Micro resistance on bounces |
| 189.48 USDT | Pivot S1 (M15) | Micro support in pullbacks |
Per approfondire lo scenario tecnico, vedere anche questa analisi aggiornata sulle correzioni di Solana.
Trading scenarios — SOL Analysis
Bullish
Trigger: A D1/H4 close back above 197.02 USDT (R1) or steady H1 hold above 193.20 USDT. Target: 208.53 USDT (EMA20), then 212.12 USDT (Bollinger mid). Invalidation: Return below 191.69 USDT (PP) after breakout. Risk: Consider stops around 0.5–1.0× D1 ATR14; partials near resistance to respect volatility.
Bearish
Trigger: Failure below 191.69 USDT and a break of 188.63 USDT (H1 S1) opens room for 184.97 USDT (S1). A D1 close under 184.97 could expose 179.32 USDT (lower band). Invalidation: Recovery above 197.02 USDT. Risk: Stops 0.5–1.0× ATR; momentum can accelerate near band edges.
Neutral (MAIN)
Trigger: Range behavior between 184.97 and 197.02 USDT with rotations around 191.69 USDT (PP). Target: Mean-reversion into 191.69 USDT and 197.02 USDT while respecting 187.13 USDT (EMA200) as a pivot. Invalidation: Clear D1 close outside 184.97–197.02 USDT. Risk: Tight management, e.g., 0.3–0.5× H1 ATR, given choppy conditions.
Market context
Total crypto market cap: 3,837,379,294,152.98 USD; 24h change: -0.63%. BTC dominance: 57.19%. Fear & Greed Index: 28 (Fear). In this backdrop, **altcoins** often struggle when dominance is high and sentiment is weak — a headwind for SOL. Analisi specifica del comportamento delle altcoin rispetto a BTC e gli impatti di mercato sono presenti anche in quest’approfondimento su Solana e altcoin.
Overall tone: cautious. Until risk appetite improves, SOL Analysis suggests respecting resistance and prioritizing liquidity zones like PP and EMA200.
Ecosystem (DeFi/chain)
On Solana DEX activity, Raydium 1d fees change is -13.12%, Orca is -23.24% (but +100.73% over 7d), and Meteora DLMM is -12.77% on 1d. Smaller venues show sharper drops: SolFi -40.05% (1d) and HumidiFi -46.65% (1d). This mix implies uneven participation across the ecosystem.
Interpretation: **Mixed** fees suggest selective participation across DeFi platforms, aligning with the neutral D1 tone in this SOL Analysis and recent choppiness in solana perps.
Per informazioni ufficiali sull’infrastruttura, roadmap, tecnologia e staking Solana puoi esplorare il sito web ufficiale Solana.
Recent news
- Andreessen Horowitz’s crypto arm invested 50 million USD in Solana staking protocol Jito — supportive for ecosystem infrastructure.
- Coverage following a recent flash crash discussed paths for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana — highlighting heightened volatility across majors.
- Discussion on potential SOL ETF vs. Ether examined whether SOL could outperform ETH if ETFs receive approvals — focusing on comparative positioning.
Disclaimer
This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. #NFA #DYOR
Source: https://en.cryptonomist.ch/2025/10/16/solana-analysis/