negative forecasts for the price of SOL

February 2025 is proving to be a negative month for the price of SOL, the native cryptocurrency of Solana. 

To tell the truth, it’s a bit the entire altcoin sector that is suffering, but as far as SOL is concerned, there is a specific reason that makes it possible to believe that the decline could continue further. 

The success of Solana

The all-time high price reached by the cryptocurrency Solana was $294, hit on January 19. 

It is not a coincidence that this was also the day following the one when Donald Trump launched his official memecoin, given that it was launched precisely on the Solana blockchain. 

In particular, starting from $125 in September 2024, the price of SOL has grown significantly and very quickly, so much so that it recorded a +66% in just 18 days in November. 

On one hand, this growth was certainly triggered by the so-called Trump trade, namely the electoral victory of Donald Trump, which led to the resignation of SEC Chairman Gary Gensler, and is leading to the closure of almost all the main cases opened by the agency against crypto in recent years.

On the other hand, however, specifically regarding Solana, the boom is also due to the sensational success of Pump.fun and memecoins.

The decline in the price of Solana (SOL)

However, the launch of Trump’s memecoin did not go particularly well. 

The price of its token $TRUMP first rose to over $70, but just three days later it had fallen to around $30.

A week later it also fell below $30, and two weeks after the launch it also fell below $20. Now its price hovers around $15, but for several weeks now it seems to have entered a descending lateralization phase that might not have concluded yet. 

Moreover, a few days ago, the Argentine President Javier Milei advertised a scamcoin, also on Solana, and this caused the popularity of shitcoin to implode.

As of the first of February, the price of SOL was over $220, but starting from that day, it began a decline that might not have concluded yet. 

On February 3rd, it dropped to almost $180, only to recover but just for a short time. In fact, on February 17th, it fell below that threshold, and in recent days it has also dropped below $160.

Currently, it is at -47% from the all-time highs of a month ago, with a -15% recorded in just the last seven days. 

The negative forecasts on the price of Solana (SOL)

The problem is that not only the entire sector of memecoins, and of shitcoins in general, is going through a really tough time, but the same thing applies to altcoins in general. 

Taking the last seven days as a reference, while BTC is essentially even, ETH is at -3%, XRP at -9%, BNB at -5%, and Dogecoin at -13%. The fact that SOL in recent days is losing more than all these altcoins clearly reveals that its decline is not solely linked to the general drop in altcoins. 

In these seven days, the dominance of Bitcoin has risen from 60.7% to 61.6%, and for a metric like this, it is a significant increase in such a short time. 

In fact, the altseason index of CMC has dropped from 38 to 27 points, getting very close to those 25 points below which the Bitcoin season begins, that is, a period in which BTC performs significantly better than altcoins, on average.

Furthermore, there is an ongoing slowdown in on-chain activity on Solana, and an imminent token unlock.

In light of all this, there are those who believe that the price of SOL could drop even below $150 in the short term, but it is not certain that in the medium term it could then start to rise again. 

The bear hypotheses

It was also discovered that the whales have increased their bearish bets on SOL with options on Deribit.

In fact, the majority of trades on SOL were about put options, precisely those used to protect against bear markets.

Note that the trading volume on Solana was concentrated 80% on put contracts, while for example this percentage was only 40% for BTC and 37.5% for ETH. 

Moreover, on the first of March, there will be an important token unlocking event (11.2 million SOL tokens), with a value exceeding 2 billion dollars. 

There thus seems to be very little room for an upswing in the short term, while things could then improve in the medium term.