Myriad Moves: Predictions on Trump Tariffs, the Canadian Election, Next Pope and More

The rise of prediction markets has given crypto participants a wide array of opportunities to test their knowledge of markets, politics, pop culture, and more. 

By using a prediction market like Myriad, users can follow or wager on a real-time, community-sourced indicator of an event’s likelihood, potentially cashing in on their knowledge in the process.

What’s popping on Myriad this week? Here’s a look at some of the most interesting, active, and newsworthy markets right now, including current odds and helpful context.

(Disclaimer: Myriad Markets is a product of Decrypt’s parent company, DASTAN.)

Will Mark Carney (Liberal Party) win the Canadian election?

Market Opened: April 7
Closes: April 28
Volume: $39.6K

Canada will soon begin voting in its general election, and Myriad users believe Bitcoin critic and Liberal Party candidate Mark Carney will come out on top. 

Odds for the incumbent candidate have climbed more than 10% this week on Myriad, jumping to 82.4% in favor of his election.

Earlier this year, Bitcoin proponent Pierre Poilievre held a lead over the Liberal Party candidate on Polymarket, holding odds over 70% in his favor until the end of February. 

Since that time though, the candidate’s chances have slowly declined, falling to just 15% on prediction market Polymarket today. Those odds follow similarly on Myriad, which showcases the current chances of the Liberal Party losing—or Poilievre winning—at just 17.4%.

What’s Next: Voting for the general election will begin on April 28.

Who will be the next pope?

Market Opened: April 21
Closes: May 19
Volume: $8.38K

After the death of Pope Francis, it didn’t take long before bettors began speculating on the election of the next leader of the Catholic Church. 

To select a new Pope, a two-thirds majority of eligible cardinal electors must agree on a decision via ballots cast in secrecy. Though the process—also known as a conclave—is unlikely to commence for another week or more, predictors are already weighing in on Pope Francis’s successor. 

Shortly after the market opened, users on Myriad were largely split between three available options, providing a small edge to Cardinal Pietro Parolin from Italy. Luis Antonio Tagle of the Philippines was shortly behind on Myriad at the time, with odds following similarly on Polymarket’s prediction market of the same kind.

As the week progressed, odds have shifted to favor “Other” at 48.2% on Myriad, sending down the odds for Parolin slightly to 29.2% and more dramatically for Tagle, who now sits at just 22.2%—around a 10% decline since the afternoon of market open. 

What’s Next: According to a report from Reuters, the conclave is expected to take place between May 6-11.

U.S.-China trade deal by the end of President Xi’s birthday?

Market Open: April 15
Predictions Close: June 13
Volume: $14.7K 

President Donald Trump’s consistently inconsistent tariff plan has created volatility beyond traditional financial and crypto markets, expanding to prediction markets as well.

One such example is Myriad’s U.S.-China Trade Deal market, which offers predictors the option to wager whether or not the two global powers will come to a deal prior to Chinese President Xi’s 72nd birthday on June 15. 

As the two leaders have sparred with comments around a potential deal, the market has followed suit, reaching a mark as high as 55% in favor of “Yes” on April 17. But then it fell to 39.9% on April 21 as China has warned that countries should not gang up against it to try and curry favor with Trump and the United States.

In the days that followed, remarks from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent may not have helped the volatility of the market, one day reportedly suggesting a deal could be soon, while the next indicating that it may take years to complete a deal. 

Markets have been relatively stable over the last few days, aside from a brief spike to 76% for “No” in the early Thursday morning hours. Since that time, odds against a trade deal retraced, currently standing at 62.4% in favor of no trade deal between the two nations by June 15.

What’s Next: A Financial Times report indicates U.S. and Chinese officials had met Thursday, but President Trump didn’t provide any details.

Will the Fed apply rate cuts by May 8?

Market Open: April 11
Predictions Close: May 5
Volume: $19K

Myriad users don’t believe that President Donald Trump’s current crusade against Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will lead to a rate cut by May 8, at least not at this time. 

The market on Myriad shows the odds of “no cut” by May 8 to be 84.2%—a 5.3% gain in the week since the market opened—despite calls from President Trump for Powell to do so. 

In a Truth Social post earlier this week, Trump referred to Powell as “Mr. Too Late,” calling him a “major loser” and imploring him to lower interest rates—but the markets still did not budge. Instead, for a time on April 21, the day of the post, odds of no cut jumped to as high as 87% on Myriad. 

Bitcoin fell last week as investors feared Powell may be late to cut, but a major rebound amid Trump’s Fed attacks may have alleviated some of those fears. 

Nevertheless, a Fed decision market on Polymarket holds odds at 91% of “no change” for the Fed’s May decision, strongly mirroring Myriad predictors’ thoughts

What’s Next: Additionally volatility may be in the cards as the Fed prepares for its next FOMC meeting, currently scheduled for May 6-7.

Edited by Andrew Hayward