MORPHO Technical Analysis Feb 18

MORPHO is exhibiting a solid HH/HL structure in an uptrend; a break below the $1.41 swing low could trigger a trend change with CHoCH.

Market Structure Overview

MORPHO’s current market structure reflects a clear uptrend. The price has formed higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL) in the recent period, maintaining its bullish character. On the daily chart, it has held above the $1.2740 swing low and risen to around $1.46. Trading above the short-term EMA20 ($1.27) supports the structural bullishness. However, the Supertrend’s bearish signal and $1.83 resistance could limit the upside momentum. MTF (multi-timeframe) analysis detects 10 strong levels on 1D/3D/1W: 2 supports/2 resistances on 1D, 2S/1R on 3D, 3S/3R balance on 1W. This indicates the structure is still intact, but requires attention due to BTC correlation. RSI at 62.72 is approaching overbought, while MACD supports momentum with a positive histogram. For structure breakdown, a drop below $1.4104 swing low is the condition.

Trend Analysis: Uptrend or Downtrend?

Uptrend Signals

The uptrend is confirmed with the classic HH/HL pattern. The latest swing high at $1.6886 (score 73/100) confirms HH by forming higher than previous highs. The HL at $1.4104 (79/100) swing low outperforms $1.2740 (61/100). This pattern shows buyer dominance: higher holds at each low, new peak attempts at each high. EMA structure is bullish; price above EMA20, signaling short-term continuation. MACD bullish crossover and RSI at 62 indicate healthy momentum. Bullish target points to $2.8676, and if $1.4797 (61/100) resistance is broken, BOS (break of structure) is triggered and the HH pattern strengthens.

Downtrend Risk

For a downtrend, LH/LL (lower highs, lower lows) is expected; not present yet. However, a drop below $1.4104 would form the first LL and bring CHoCH (change of character). If it holds below $1.4797 resistance, LH potential increases risk. Supertrend is bearish and BTC downtrend could trigger LH/LL in altcoins. Bearish target $0.6393; break of $1.2740 would be a major reversal signal.

Structure Break (BOS) Levels

Bullish BOS: Close above $1.4797 breaks minor structure and opens path to $1.6886; then targets $2.8676. This forms a new HH and strengthens the uptrend without invalidating it. Bearish BOS: Weekly close below $1.4104 swing low breaks the structure and brings a drop to $1.2740. This level destroys the HL pattern and initiates LH/LL. Displacement (sharp move) is expected before CHoCH. In 24h +4.35% tested $1.39-1.53 range; $1.39 hold is healthy before bullish BOS. On MTF, 1W supports (related to $47k BTC) are critical; major down BOS is hard without breaking here.

Swing Points and Their Importance

Recent Swing Highs

$1.6886 (73/100): Main resistance, break confirms uptrend continuation. $1.4797 (61/100): Minor swing high, transition level. These points are areas tested by sellers; breakout failure creates LH risk. Price at $1.46 is between these two, breakout expected.

Recent Swing Lows

$1.4104 (79/100): Strong support, HL confirmation. $1.2740 (61/100): Major swing low, break brings reversal. These levels are where buyer volume accumulates; holds preserve HL pattern. $1.39 intraday low tested $1.41 and rebounded – bullish signal.

Bitcoin Correlation

BTC at $67,125 in downtrend (-0.18% 24h), Supertrend bearish. Main supports $65,050 / $61,088; break triggers cascade drop in altcoins. MORPHO is highly correlated with BTC; if BTC can’t break $68,117 resistance, MORPHO’s $1.6886 BOS will be difficult. If BTC dominance rises (bearish supertrend), altcoin structures should prepare for CHoCH. Conversely, if BTC pulls to $71k, MORPHO’s $2.86 target opens. Monitor BTC levels for MORPHO Spot Analysis and MORPHO Futures Analysis.

Structural Outlook and Expectations

Structural outlook is bullish: HH/HL intact, uptrend continues as long as above $1.4104. BOS above $1.48 for continuation, CHoCH risk below. Educational note: Market structure is a dynamic concept tied to swing points; HH/HL shows buyer strength, LH/LL seller dominance. BOS confirms trend; CHoCH warns of reversal. With MTF balance, short-term bullish, medium-term BTC dependent. No news, pure price action focus. Attention: High volatility, stop-loss below $1.41.