Monero price Analysis Bearish intraday rebound: levels

The broader crypto market remains under pressure, and within this backdrop Monero price is trying to stage a counter-trend bounce against a still-dominant bearish structure.

XMR/USDT daily chart with EMA20, EMA50 and volume”
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Monero price: where we stand now

Monero (XMRUSDT) is trading around $118.7, sitting below all the key daily moving averages and well under the midline of its Bollinger Bands. Structurally, this is still a bears-in-charge market on the daily chart, but with a clear attempt at a short-term rebound on intraday timeframes.

This moment matters because we are in a classic tension zone: the daily trend is down, yet the 1-hour and 15-minute charts show active buying pressure. In other words, Monero price is bouncing inside a broader downtrend. The dominant force for now is trend-following sellers on the daily, while shorter-term traders are probing for a bottom.

Add to this a crypto-wide backdrop of extreme fear (Fear & Greed at 10) and slightly negative total market cap over 24 hours, and you get a market more inclined to sell strength than to chase breakouts.

Primary bias from D1: Bearish. Any bullish idea has to be framed as a counter-trend move until the daily structure actually shifts.

Daily chart (D1) – primary trend and structure

Trend and moving averages (EMA20, EMA50, EMA200)

• Price: $118.7
• EMA20: $130.53
• EMA50: $143.65
• EMA200: $154.49
• Regime: Bearish

Monero price is trading below all three EMAs, with a clear bearish stack (price < EMA20 < EMA50 < EMA200). That is textbook downtrend structure: rallies into the 20-day or 50-day zones are statistically more likely to be sold than to turn into full trend reversals.

Short take: Dips are not being bought aggressively enough to reclaim trend levels; the path of least resistance is still down until at least the 20-day EMA is reclaimed and held.

RSI (14)

RSI is below 50 but above 30, which lines up with a weak, but not yet oversold market. Sellers have control, but we are not at a capitulation extreme.

Interpretation: Downtrend with room to fall. There is space for further downside before a classic oversold bounce is forced. Any bounce from here is more likely positioning and short-covering than a clear signal that the trend has turned.

MACD

• MACD line: -9.66
• Signal line: -8.97
• Histogram: -0.69

MACD is negative and the line is below its signal, with a modestly negative histogram. Momentum is bearish but not accelerating.

Interpretation: The strong sell momentum phase is behind us for now, but the market has not flipped to bullish. It is more of a grinding downtrend than a waterfall.

Bollinger Bands

• Middle band (20-period): $133.10
• Upper band: $173.11
• Lower band: $93.10
• Price vs mid: Price at $118.7 is below the middle band

Price is trading in the lower half of the band range but well above the lower band. Volatility is wide enough to allow big swings, but we are not hugging the lower band, which would signal sustained downside pressure.

Interpretation: XMR is weak within a broad volatility envelope. It has room to move both ways, but the positioning in the lower half keeps the bias pointed down unless price can re-attack the middle band around $133.

ATR (14) – Daily volatility

An ATR around $10 on a $118 asset implies daily ranges close to 8–9% of price are normal right now.

Interpretation: Volatility is elevated but not extreme. Moves of $10 up or down in a day are normal noise, so any levels you care about need some breathing room.

Daily pivot levels

• Pivot (PP): $116.23
• Resistance 1 (R1): $122.07
• Support 1 (S1): $112.87

Price at $118.7 is trading above the daily pivot but below R1.

Interpretation: On the daily, XMR is trying to stabilize slightly above its short-term equilibrium at $116. A push through $122 and then toward the 20-day EMA near $130 would be the first sign that buyers are doing more than just defending support.

1-hour chart (H1) – intraday bias

On the 1-hour chart, the regime is marked as neutral, but the intraday structure is trying to turn up.

Trend and EMAs (H1)

• Price: $118.7
• EMA20: $115.86
• EMA50: $118.31
• EMA200: $122.02
• Regime: Neutral

Price is trading above the 20-hour and very slightly above the 50-hour EMA, but still below the 200-hour.

Interpretation: Short-term, buyers have regained control of the last day or two, but the broader intraday trend, defined by the 200 EMA, is not yet broken. This is a counter-trend bounce inside a larger downtrend.

RSI (14, H1)

RSI above 50 shows intraday momentum on the buy side, but it is not stretched.

Interpretation: On the 1-hour, the market is leaning bullish but still balanced. There is room for further upside before overbought concerns kick in.

MACD (H1)

• MACD line: -1.71
• Signal line: -2.00
• Histogram: 0.29

MACD is still below zero but has crossed above its signal, giving a positive histogram.

Interpretation: Momentum is recovering from a previously bearish phase. Buyers are stepping in, but they are still working from a negative-momentum base. It fits the idea of a relief rally, not a confirmed trend reversal.

Bollinger Bands (H1)

• Middle band: $116.28
• Upper band: $124.46
• Lower band: $108.10
• Price vs mid: Price at $118.7 is above the middle band

Price is hovering in the upper half of the band range and above the midline.

Interpretation: Intraday control is with buyers, but price is not yet testing the upper band. The 1-hour chart supports further upside attempts as long as XMR holds above the mid-band region, around $116–117.

ATR (14, H1) – Intraday volatility

Hourly ranges around $3–4 are common right now.

Interpretation: Intraday volatility is healthy but not chaotic. Moves from $118 to $122 or back to $115 can happen within a session without changing the bigger picture.

Hourly pivot levels

• Pivot (PP): $117.40
• Resistance 1 (R1): $120.90
• Support 1 (S1): $115.20

With price at $118.7, XMR is above the intraday pivot and between PP and R1.

Interpretation: For short-term traders, the market is in a buy-the-dip mode above $117–115 on this timeframe, with $120.9 as the next obvious intraday test.

15-minute chart (M15) – execution and very short-term tone

The 15-minute chart is for timing, not for big-picture bias, but it adds useful color.

Trend and EMAs (M15)

• Price: $118.7
• EMA20: $114.02
• EMA50: $114.50
• EMA200: $118.12
• Regime: Neutral

Price is trading above all three EMAs on the 15-minute, including the 200 EMA.

Interpretation: Very short-term, bulls have the upper hand. In this timeframe, any dip back toward the 200 EMA, around $118.1, is a decision point intraday traders will watch closely.

RSI (14, M15)

RSI is into overbought territory on the 15-minute chart.

Interpretation: The very short-term move is hot. That does not mean a macro top, but it does raise the risk of a local pullback or sideways digestion before any further leg higher intraday.

MACD (M15)

• MACD line: 0.71
• Signal line: 0.11
• Histogram: 0.60

MACD is positive and above its signal, with a clearly positive histogram.

Interpretation: Short-term momentum is firmly bullish. Combined with the overbought RSI, this looks like a strong intraday push that may need a pause or small correction to reset.

Bollinger Bands (M15)

• Middle band: $113.61
• Upper band: $116.71
• Lower band: $110.52
• Price vs bands: Price at $118.7 is trading above the upper band

Price has pushed beyond the upper Bollinger Band on this timeframe.

Interpretation: The 15-minute chart is showing a short-term breakout or overextension. That often resolves either with a quick mean reversion back inside the band or a consolidation while the band catches up.

ATR (14, M15)

Interpretation: Swings of $2 within a few 15-minute candles are within normal noise, so tight stops can easily be whipsawed at these horizons.

15-minute pivot levels

• Pivot (PP): $117.77
• Resistance 1 (R1): $120.53
• Support 1 (S1): $115.93

XMR is trading above the pivot and between PP and R1.

Interpretation: Very short-term bias is up, but with price already extended above the upper band, chasing near $118–119 carries poor immediate reward-to-risk unless you are targeting a quick move into the R1 region around $120.5.

Putting it together: where Monero price stands

We have a classic multi-timeframe conflict:

• Daily (D1): Bearish trend, below all major EMAs, weak momentum but not oversold.
• 1-hour (H1): Neutral-to-bullish intraday, recovering momentum, price above short EMAs but below the 200 EMA.
• 15-minute (M15): Strong short-term bullish impulse, overbought and extended above the upper band.

In plain language, the bigger picture is still down, but we are in the middle of a bounce. Short-term traders are pushing Monero price higher inside a broader downtrend, in a macro environment defined by extreme fear and risk aversion.

Key scenarios for XMRUSDT

Bullish scenario (counter-trend for now)

For the bullish side to gain traction, the market needs to turn this intraday rebound into something more structural.

What bulls want to see:

• Hold above $116–115 (H1 pivot and support zone). That keeps the 1-hour structure constructive.
• A sustained push through $120.9 (H1 R1) and then a test of the H1 200 EMA around $122.
• From there, the bigger test is the daily pivot or R1 confluence and especially the EMA20 near $130.5. Reclaiming and holding above the 20-day EMA would be the first serious sign of a trend repair on the daily.

If buyers manage to hold above the 20-day EMA after a breakout, the narrative shifts from a dead cat bounce toward potential base-building, with the next logical magnets near the daily Bollinger midline at $133 and then the EMA50 around $143–145.

What invalidates the bullish scenario:

• A clean break back below $115 (H1 S1) that holds on a closing basis.
• Daily RSI slipping back toward low-30s while price stays under the 20-day EMA, confirming that this rebound was just another selling opportunity.

If that happens, the bullish case reverts to just another bounce in a downtrend, and shorts regain the upper hand.

Bearish scenario (trend-following)

The bearish case aligns with the current daily regime and the macro environment of extreme fear.

What bears want to see:

• Failure to sustain above the $120–122 area (H1 R1 and 200 EMA), followed by a roll-over of intraday momentum.
• A drop back under the daily pivot at $116.23, turning it into resistance.
• Continuation lower toward daily S1 at $112.87 and then a potential test deeper into the lower half of the daily Bollinger range, psychological zone $100–105, with the lower band down at $93.10.

With daily RSI at 38, there is still room for price to grind down toward that lower band zone before hitting an oversold wall.

What invalidates the bearish scenario:

• XMR reclaiming and holding above the daily EMA20 ($130.5) for several sessions.
• Daily RSI pushing back above 50 while MACD flattens and starts to rise, signaling a shift from controlled downtrend to neutral or early uptrend.

As long as price is pinned under the 20-day EMA and the daily regime remains bearish, sellers retain the structural advantage.

How to think about positioning, risk, and uncertainty

Context matters. The wider crypto market is under pressure, BTC dominance is high, and the sentiment gauge is flashing Extreme Fear. In this backdrop, Monero price rallies are more likely to be treated as liquidity to sell into rather than the start of a broad risk-on phase.

From a market-logic standpoint:

• Trend traders will naturally side with the daily downtrend and look to fade strength into EMA20 and EMA50 zones.
• Mean-reversion traders will focus on the intraday long side, but with tight expectations: they are riding a bounce, not a confirmed new bull market.
• Volatility is high enough, with daily ATR above $10, that position sizing and stop placement matter more than usual. Being right on direction but wrong on size can still hurt.

The real risk here is overconfidence in either direction. The daily trend says do not fall in love with longs, while the intraday charts show that shorts entered too late can be squeezed by fast bounces like the one we see on the 15-minute and 1-hour charts.

In practical terms, the cleanest area of agreement across timeframes is the $115–122 band. How price behaves around that zone over the next couple of sessions will tell you whether this is just another blip in a downtrend or the start of something more constructive for Monero price.